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Learning from the Japanese Experience

By Ari Bussel and Norma Zager

It was the First Persian Gulf War and Saddam Hussein employed the use of long-range missiles against the Israeli home front.

The United States of America, then a staunch ally of Israel, had provided Israel with Patriot missiles that served as Israel's only defense against the incoming Scud missiles.

Israel might have engaged, as was once Israel's routine, in an attack against the Iraqi enemy on its home court. These would have been clandestine operations, befitting Israel's glorious tradition of not waiting to be slaughtered and taking the initiative to carry out daring missions on enemy territory.

The population was given emergency kits that included gas masks since the main threat was from a chemical attack. Saddam Hussein used chemicals before against his own people; he would not have hesitated using them against his enemies.

The Scud missiles had warheads that could contain deadly chemicals. This capability was proven when a missile fell but did not explode, although it was discovered the warhead, capable of carrying unconventional agents, happened to be empty. The story appeared in a foreign magazine and so information that otherwise would have been classified top secret was readily disseminated.

People needed to quickly adjust to this new threat. For instance, religious men who grow beards their whole life were forced to shave them. Survival came first but caused much commotion and debate. In the military, an order was issued, while for the general public much discussion ensued.

The public adjusted as well. After all, it was wartime.

In the Israeli domestic market there was a great shortage of plastic sheets and tape. These plastic sheets were used to cover any openings and create closed spaces, or as close as possible to sealed rooms, to protect against these Scud missile attacks. Tape was applied over windows to minimize glass dispersal.

At first unscrupulous vendors provided almost an abundance of over-priced product. Soon though, the actual product shortages were met by importation by entrepreneurial individuals.

First left undefended, Israel did not anticipate the war that developed. It was a new experience, one where the "front" was actually the "home front." The Scud missiles were aimed at critical infrastructure such as the nuclear reactor in Southern Israel or general headquarters in the center, then at civilian centers.

Since the missiles lacked accuracy, they could not inflict very precise damage. Their main effect was in terrorizing the population at large. [In the two decades that have since past, the missiles have developed to such an extent that both range and accuracy are immeasurably better. Also, their ready quantity in stockpiles is orders of magnitude larger, seemingly limitless.]

When the United States provided the Patriot missiles and had them stationed in critical positions designed to protect major population centers (and other specific high-value targets), it presented a unique opportunity.

There was no real experience, thus no way to know how effective the system would be. Each missile launched to counter the incoming Scud missiles was very expensive, a million dollars in then-money if I am not mistaken.

The opportunity created was to follow each launch of a Patriot missile and study it as if Israel were a test case. Israel thus turned into a laboratory to investigate projectiles, response time, accuracy and effectiveness.

Twenty years have passed since that conflict and today Iran possesses very advanced missile technology. It has armed its cronies in Lebanon and Gaza with tens of thousands of missiles. Add to that Iran's front command in Syria, on land and in sea, and Israel is threatened simultaneously from multiple fronts by a total number of missiles sufficient to obliterate every aboveground structure into rubble.

Yet, the main threat seems to be a nuclear detonation, primarily targeting General Headquarters in Tel Aviv, across the street from the iconic towers, Israel's World Trade Center equivalent.

A study was done, presented at a major conference in Israel (thus the results were not classified), simulating a simultaneous detonation of three atomic bombs. The study investigated the dispersal patterns, given wind and weather conditions, and possible effects on Israel.

Rather than getting into the details, allow me to present the conclusion: Israel will survive. One of the diagrams, showing an ellipsoid dispersal pattern from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem stuck in my mind's eye for some odd reason, as it split the country into two parts, without the ability to pass from one to the other imposed for a prolonged period of time.

How does one plan for an aftermath of a nuclear attack eventuality? How does one train? What drills can be carried out? How does anyone deal with the psychology of the population? Parents worried about their children, children worried about their parents? What do soldiers do, how do they behave under the extreme pressure knowing their families are in direct risk of exposure? The Israeli Defense Forces, before all, is the people's army-part and parcel of every family in Israel.

Japan offers an answer. Japan was not forced into a doomsday scenario because enemies seeking its destruction surround it; or because it was denigrated to the level of the most despised creatures on earth. Instead, it was decimated by a massive earthquake, one of the strongest ever recorded, followed by a tsunami. This fatal combination caused trice redundant protective systems in nuclear reactors to fail simultaneously.

At the moment Japan is unable to respond both to the horrors of the aftermath of the Great-Quake-Tsunami and to handle the meltdown of nuclear reactors built for truly peaceful purposes and for the benefit of all Japanese people. [Iran claiming to engage in a race to obtain the bomb uses the argument of peaceful purposes but is as distant from it as darkness is from a hot, sunny day.]

In a separate Postcard we addressed what we believe should have been the course of action by the world community, particularly by the USA-Russia-China-India and France. Russia suffered through Chernobyl and the U.S. dealt with its Three-Mile Island catastrophe.

We claimed that the Japanese would rather do everything possible than ask for help, since it is contrary to their culture and collective nature. We also noted that if the Japanese, who excel in taking things apart, studying them and reassembling them better than the original, were unable to find the necessary solutions to containment and safe dispersal of contaminants then probably no one else could either in a very short period of time.

The Japanese ability for technology excels, and if they are experiencing such difficulty with their nuclear facilities, it must cause us all to pause.

Notice that we did not include Israel in the solution (countries which amassed knowledge and expertise in the nuclear area coming to the aid of Japan). We did so purposely, not because Israel is yet to officially admit it possesses one of the largest stockpiles of nuclear weapons, but because Israel is always the first to offer help, even to her sworn enemies in a time of need, and we did not think she alone should jump into the hot zone.

Israel however brings another dimension to the table. Not only does she possess the knowledge and apparent expertise in all things nuclear-related, her people are uniquely positioned to find solutions to impossible problems. We referred to this ability in a different Postcard by name: IMPROVISATION. Many would call it "creativity," a Jewish talent Israel has repeatedly used for the betterment of humankind and human conditions on this earth.

Israel's involvement in Haiti, for instance, was extraordinary. Imagine, Syria-Israel's sworn enemy-on its state television network accused Israel of going to Haiti to harvest organs, a popular blood libel in the Arab world.

Israel, a nation of seven million people smaller than many "small" cities in China, was among the first on the scene. She alone had a fully functioning field hospital in Haiti before anyone else. In proportion, as usual, the Arab world contributed very little to the relief effort.

Israel alone was the envy of all other nations-how with relatively meager means she managed, despite all odds and difficulties, to be up and running and helping around the clock, saving lives before the superpowers of the world could get it together. Not only that, Israeli doctors provided the best medical treatment, matched by no other.

This is what is defined in military circles "leadership by example." This is the "plucky" nature of Israel.

Israel should be in Japan, not to take the leading role in extending help (as the superpowers of the world should) nor to intervene in operational details that Japan, at the moment, still insists on carrying alone.

Rather, Israel should be there to study the fallout from the nuclear problems. Incidentally, Israel can be in Japan not physically but through her eyes in space.

In the First Persian Gulf War Israel was the laboratory. She did not volunteer, but smart people with the correct depth of understanding and foresight realized they must study for such a real-live experience does not come voluntarily. They utilized a very bad situation and turned it into a unique opportunity.

Similarly in Japan twenty years later, Japan is the laboratory. How to take cover, how to calculate the dispersion patterns, how to cover every part of the body and later dispose of contaminated clothes and how to deal with avoiding panic and the psychology of the affected population are all basic questions one needs to deal with when faced with a nuclear, biological or chemical dispersal.

Every situation presents its own unique set of difficulties and challenges, but now Japan has been forced into dealing with the inevitable.

Protective zones, first 6km evacuation diameter, then 30km and tomorrow who knows.

Going inside as the outside is contaminated.

The behavior, protection and advancement of first responders.

Supplying water, food and other necessities (including rest time) to the forces in the field and those who are exposed.

Medical evacuation and immediate, short- and long-term physical and psychological treatment.

Resource centers of experts that may be removed from the field but with eyes and ears constantly tuned to what is happening in real time.

Control over multiple systems (financial, logistical, providing the population that is restricted to closed spaces for prolonged periods of time with activity, ...).

Special care for the elderly and the disabled.

And the least goes on and on.

Japan may not have volunteered, but Nature has forced it to become a laboratory for the world to study and try to stabilize and help.

Israel must use this opportunity to learn the lessons, for she will most probably not be shaken by nature. Israel's enemies are of the human kind, and the barbarism of the Middle East is unlike any seen in our world. The Nazis of WWII and their Final Solution pale in comparison to today's Muslims and their determination to exterminate the Jews and the Western World once and for all.

Israel will thus have to face the same or worse than Japan. She, too, will be overwhelmed. She, too, will have no choice but to do everything possible and more to survive. She, too, may have to resort to asking the world's help.

Who will help? Like those Righteous Gentiles in the Holocaust, there may be one, two or three nations that will come to Israel's aid in her time of greatest need. Unless it is their time of need as well.

Japan is forced to face an inferno in the form of an earthquake and a tsunami. Israel and the West will be forced to face an inferno by the Muslim Palestinians, the re-emerging Persian Empire and the Islamist fanatics.

May both Japan and Israel, two of the more advanced countries in the world, survive the unknown and help each other find the answers. For both nations are altruistic and strive for the greater good for their people and all mankind.

In the series 'Postcards from Israel,' Ari Bussel and Norma Zager invite readers throughout the world to join them as they present reports from Israel as seen by two sets of eyes: Bussel's on the ground, Zager's counter-point from home. Israel and the United States are inter-related - the two countries we hold dearest to our hearts - and so is this 'point - counter-point' presentation that has, since 2008, become part of our lives.