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Tea Party Support Declines Somewhat

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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 3,171 adults surveyed online between February 14 and 21, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

The poll also provides a demographic profile of Tea Party supporters, which shows that:

    --  There are more strong Tea Party supporters in the East (20%) than in the
        other regions, but if all Tea Party supporters are counted they are more
        common in the South (43%) than in the other regions and least likely to
        be in the West (32%);
    --  A much higher proportion (49%) of people over 65 than of Baby Boomers
        (36%) and younger generations (37% of Gen X, aged 35-46 and 34% of Echo
        Boomers, aged 18-34) are Tea Party supporters;
    --  Men are much more likely than women (47% vs. 29%) to be Tea Party
        supporters and to be strong Tea Party supporters (21% vs. 8%);
    --  Only a very few African Americans (8%) are Tea Party supporters compared
        to 42% of whites and 37% of Hispanics;
    --  Fully 70% of Republicans are Tea Party supporters and 26% of them are
        strong supporters.  More surprisingly perhaps Tea Party supporters
        include 17% of Democrats and 38% of Independents;
    --  There is a strong correlation between support for the Tea Party and (not
        having) education.  Supporters include 43% of those who never went to
        college, 36% of people with some college education but no degree, 33% of
        college graduates and 26% of those with a post graduate degree;
    --  Tea Party support is lowest (29%) among those with household incomes of
        less than $35,000 but is not correlated with income among the rest of
        the population.   However the largest proportion (24%) who are strong
        supporters are found among those with household incomes of between
        $50,000 an $75,000; and,
    --  Most Conservatives (69%) are Tea Party supporters and almost a third of
        them (31%) are strong supporters.  However substantial minorities of
        moderates (27%) and liberals (20%) are also supporters.

So What?

While this poll shows that support for the Tea Party movement has been declining this year, the decline is modest; more than one third of adults still support it. Furthermore this downward trend may not continue. Something may happen to breathe new life into the movement. Only time will tell if this is the beginning of a long term decline or whether the Tea Party will still be a potent force in the run up to the 2012 elections, and whether it will strengthen, or divide the Republican party.

                            TABLE 1
            SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE TEA PARTY - TREND
       "Do you support or oppose the Tea Party Movement?"
    Base: All adults

                                                        2010          2011
                            May   June    Aug   Sept    Oct    Jan    Feb
                             %      %      %      %      %      %      %
    Support (NET)             45     44     44     45     44     39     37
         Strongly support     21     18     18     17     17     16     14
         Somewhat support     24     26     27     27     27     23     23
    Oppose (NET)              35     36     34     35     37     35     38
         Somewhat oppose      13     13     13     16     14     11     13
         Strongly oppose      22     23     21     19     23     24     25
    Not at all sure           20     20     22     20     18     26     24

    Note: Until January 2011 this question was only asked among those
    adults who said they were familiar with the Tea Party Movement.
    Beginning in January 2011 it was asked of all adults; Percentages
    may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

                              TABLE 2
               SUPPORT THE TEA PARTY - DEMOGRAPHICS
        "Do you support or oppose the Tea Party Movement?"
                       Summary of "Support"
    Base: All adults

                                 Strongly    Somewhat      Support
                                  support     support       (NET)
                                    %            %            %
    All adults                          14          23            37
    Region
         East                           20          17            37
         Midwest                        11          24            34
         South                          15          29            43
         West                           12          20            32
    Generation
         Echo Boomers (18-34)           14          20            34
         Gen X (35-46)                  12          25            37
         Baby Boomers (47-65)           12          24            36
         Matures (66+)                  21          28            49
    Gender
         Male                           21          25            47
         Female                          8          21            29
    Race/Ethnicity
         White                          16          27            42
         African American                5           3             8
         Hispanic                       14          23            37
    Political Party ID
         Republican                     26          43            70
         Democrat                        9           8            17
         Independent                    13          25            38
    Education
         H.S. or less                   18          25            43
         Some college                   14          22            36
         College grad                   10          24            33
         Post grad                       8          18            26
    Income
         Less than $35K                  9          21            29
                  $35K-$49.9K           14          26            40
                  $50K-$74.9K           24          20            44
                  $75K-$99.9K           14          26            40
                      $100K +           14          26            40
    Political Philosophy
         Conservative                   31          38            69
         Moderate                        5          22            27
         Liberal                        14           7            20

    Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between February 14 to 21, 2011 among 3,171 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J39370

Q1220

The Harris Poll(®) #33, March 8, 2011

By Humphrey Taylor, Chairman, The Harris Poll

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us - and our clients - stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

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SOURCE Harris Interactive