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Pharmaceutical Industry Bracing for Record Patent Expiries, EvaluatePharma Data Reveals

    - Drugs worth $15.3bn face generic competition this year
    - "At risk" sales to more than double to $33.2bn by 2012, biggest
      annual total on record
    - $133bn of branded drugs face patent expiry in next six years in
      the US alone
    - Pfizer to bear brunt of patent cliff with $11bn Lipitor expiry
      later this year

The sector is facing an unprecedented period of patent expiries when mega-blockbusters, including Lipitor, Plavix and Zyprexa, will all be exposed to cheap, generic drugs. While this is good news in terms of lowering healthcare bills, companies like Pfizer and Eli Lilly are facing the loss of hugely profitable franchises.

    Top products going off-patent in 2011 and 2012

                                                USA annual sales ($m)
    Year Rank Product   Company      2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015 2016

    2011  1   Lipitor   Pfizer      5,329 4,528   492   146    73    45    42
          2   Zyprexa   Eli Lilly   2,496 1,949   339   218   188   172   157
          3   Levaquin  Johnson &   1,312   734   155    62    43    30    17
                        Johnson
          4   Concerta  Johnson &     929   587   306   221   189   150   111
                        Johnson
          5   Protonix  Pfizer        690   279   172    96    64    41    17

    2012  1   Plavix    Bristol
                        -Myers      6,154 6,315 3,014   382   113    61    28
                        Squibb
          2   Seroquel  AstraZeneca 3,747 3,771 1,669   985   861   792   732
          3   Singulair Merck & Co  3,224 3,356 2,178   364   125    53    21
          4   Actos     Takeda      3,351 3,275 1,360   582   511   462   413
          5   Enbrel    Amgen       3,304 3,258 3,218 3,157 3,097 3,024 2,967
          6   Lexapro   Forest      2,264 2,122   188    66    50    43    39
                        Laboratories
          7   Diovan    Novartis    2,520 2,093 1,540   394   333   279   246
          8   Viagra    Pfizer        992 1,007   328    75    59    54    46
          9   Provigil  Cephalon    1,027   916   403    87    38    28    17
          10  Geodon    Pfizer        864   907   539   120    35    28    22

By 2016, medicines that generate sales of $133bn for their manufacturers in the US alone will be exposed to generics. And while this year looks bad, next year is a true annus horribilis: drugs worth $33.2bn this year will lose patent protection in 2012, more than double this year's figure.

    Big pharma patent expiry risk over next 3 years (data based on FY 2010
estimates)

                      WW    Patent  Patent expiry     %
                    Pharma  expired   within 3    portfolio
                     Sales   sales   years ($bn)   at risk
                    in 2010  ($bn)                within 3
                     ($bn)                          years
    Pfizer           53.6    13.8       22.7         68%
    Eli Lilly        20.8     3.1       10.6         66%
    Bristol-Myers
    Squibb           15.6     0.9        8.2         58%
    Johnson &
    Johnson          24.3     6.5        6.3         52%
    AstraZeneca      31.7     7.7        8.3         50%
    Amgen            14.6     0.0        7.4         50%
    Merck & Co       41.1    10.1        7.4         43%
    Sanofi-Aventis   39.9    11.1        4.8         40%
    Novartis         45.0     6.5       11.4         40%
    GlaxoSmithKline  39.6    10.8        2.4         33%
    Abbott
    Laboratories     19.4     3.8        1.0         25%
    Roche            36.2     4.5        2.4         19%

Pfizer is bearing the brunt of these expiries with Lipitor, the cholesterol-lowering agent which generated $11bn last year. Generics will enter the US market later this year, ultimately robbing Pfizer of the world's biggest drug maker title in 2012, with Novartis the heir-apparent.

Although Eli Lilly is facing a smaller patent cliff in dollar terms, the US pharma giant is feeling similar pain. Like Pfizer, two-thirds of the company's drug sales are likely to meet generic competitors in the next three years, presenting a huge challenge which will be tough to overcome.

For more information and in-depth analysis of this data, please see:

Patent storm gathering strength: http://bit.ly/f3JKPS

Pfizer patent cliff dwarfs peers as loss of Lipitor looms: http://bit.ly/fWjvUA

Notes to editors

About EvaluatePharma:

The research company EvaluatePharma Ltd was the first to supply reliable consensus forecasts of global drug sales and now provides standardised worldwide financial and forecast models with consensus product sales forecasts to 2016, data on R&D pipelines, licensing deals, patent risk and M&A activity. Launched in 2007, EvaluatePharma(R)Alpha offers a Net Present Value (NPV) valuation service quantifying market events and the impact on product, portfolio and company valuation including the daily online news service EP Vantage(R).

EvaluatePharma(R), EvaluatePharma(R)Alpha, and EP Vantage(R) are services of EvaluatePharma Ltd, headquartered inLondon, England. InNorth America, EvaluatePharma Ltd is represented by EvaluatePharma USA, Inc.

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