Published: February 01, 2011
Some Glimmers of Optimism on the Economy
NEW YORK, Feb. 1, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- There is a sense of optimism returning to the American people. They are feeling better about President Obama, the direction of the country and, albeit to a lesser degree, Congress. And, it seems they are also feeling slightly better about the economy. One-third of Americans (33%) give President Obama positive ratings on his handling of the economy while two-thirds (67%) give him negative ratings. In December, three in ten U.S. adults (30%) gave the President positive ratings and 70% gave him negative marks on the economy.
These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,566 adults surveyed online between January 17 and 24, 2011 by Harris Interactive. This survey was conducted before the President delivered his State of the Union address.
Looking back as well as forward
Compared to last year, Americans feel slightly more secure about their financial situation. One-quarter (23%) say they feel more secure now, 37% say they feel the same as last year and just under two in five (38%) feel less secure about their financial situation. Last year, when compared to the previous year, less than one in five (19%) felt more secure and over two in five (42%) felt less secure.
Looking ahead, over one-quarter of Americans (27%) say they expect their own household finances to be better in the next six months and the same number (27%) expect them to be worse while 46% say they will be the same. In October, 22% of U.S. adults thought their finances would be better, half (49%) thought they would be the same and 29% felt they would be worse.
Savings
One of the stories about this financial crisis has been about savings. Some say people -- even those who may not have been laid off -- have been building nest eggs to prepare for the worst. But, that may not be true. While one-quarter of Americans (25%) say they are saving more than they were in 2008 before the downturn in the economy, one-third (35%) are saving the same amount and two in five (40%) are saving less than they were. When compared to one year ago, one in five (21%) are saving more, two in five (42%) are saving the same amount and 37% are saving less. If the economy is getting better, maybe the savings are happening more recently? Well, compared to three months ago, over half of Americans (53%) are saving the same amount, 16% are saving more and three in ten (31%) are saving less.
The job market
The one area where optimism seems to not have returned is the job market. Almost two-thirds of Americans (65%) say the current job market in their region of the country is bad, up from 63% who said this in December. One in five (22%) say it is neither good nor bad and 13% say it is good; the same number of Americans who said it was good in December. The Midwest region seems to be in the worst shape as just 9% of Midwesterners say the job market in their region is good while 72% say it is bad. Easterners seem to be better off as almost one in five of them (18%) say the job market in their region is good and three in five (61%) say it is bad.
But there is a glimmer of hope. Three in ten Americans (31%) say they believe the job market in their region will be better in six months while half (51%) say it will stay the same and 18% say it will be worse. In December, one-quarter of U.S. adults (25%) said the job market would be better in six months while 22% believed it would be worse.
So What?
This is the one area where President Obama needs the optimism to hold. If current feelings on economic conditions continue to improve, he will finally be able to move on to the other things on his agenda. If, however, they take a step backwards, not only will the rest of his agenda become in jeopardy, so will his re-election chances.
TABLE 1
PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING ON THE ECONOMY - TREND
"Now, turning to something different, how would you rate the overall
job that President Barack Obama is doing on the economy?"
Base: All adults
2009
March April May June Aug Sept Nov Dec
% % % % % % % %
POSITIVE
(NET) 47 49 46 43 39 40 34 36
Excellent 13 13 10 3 9 7 6 6
Pretty good 34 36 36 34 31 33 27 30
NEGATIVE
(NET) 53 51 54 57 61 60 66 64
Only fair 30 27 30 27 25 27 30 30
--------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Poor 23 24 24 30 36 33 37 34
---- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2010
Jan March April May June Aug
% % % % % %
POSITIVE
(NET) 31 32 33 36 32 32
Excellent 5 5 6 6 5 6
Pretty good 25 27 27 30 27 26
NEGATIVE
(NET) 69 68 67 64 68 68
Only fair 31 30 31 29 32 29
Poor 39 37 36 34 37 39
2010 2011
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
% % % % %
POSITIVE
(NET) 29 27 31 30 33
Excellent 5 5 5 5 7
Pretty good 24 22 26 25 26
NEGATIVE
(NET) 71 73 69 70 67
Only fair 31 33 30 34 30
Poor 40 39 39 36 37
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 2A
FINANCIAL SECURITY
"Compared to last year, how secure do you feel
about your financial situation?"
Base: All adults
Political
Total Affiliation
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % %
MORE SECURE (NET) 23 11 37 18
Much more secure 7 2 13 4
Somewhat more secure 16 10 24 14
Same as last year 37 32 38 39
LESS SECURE (NET) 38 56 22 41
Somewhat less secure 20 26 13 23
Much less secure 18 29 9 18
Not sure 2 1 3 2
Generation
Echo Baby
Boomers Gen. X Boomers Matures
(18-34) (35-46) (47-65) (66+)
% % % %
MORE SECURE (NET) 33 18 20 20
Much more secure 13 3 5 5
Somewhat more secure 20 15 15 15
Same as last year 38 37 37 34
LESS SECURE (NET) 26 43 42 47
Somewhat less secure 13 22 23 23
Much less secure 13 20 19 23
Not sure 3 2 2 *
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding
Note: * indicates less than 0.5%
TABLE 2B
FINANCIAL SECURITY - TREND
"Compared to last year, how secure do you feel about your financial
situation?"
Base: All adults
2008 2009 2010 2011
% % % %
MORE SECURE (NET) 21 12 19 23
Much more secure 4 3 5 7
Somewhat more secure 17 9 14 16
Same as last year 34 30 36 37
LESS SECURE (NET) 38 56 42 38
Somewhat less secure 24 33 23 20
Much less secure 14 23 20 18
Not sure 7 3 2 2
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding
TABLE 3
PERSONAL FINANCIAL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS - TREND
"Thinking about your household's financial condition,
do you expect it to be better or worse in the next 6 months?"
Base: All adults
2008
Feb Mar June Nov
% % % %
BETTER (NET) 39 33 40 24
Will remain the
same 28 28 25 43
WORSE (NET) 34 39 36 33
2009
Jan Mar April May June Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
% % % % % % % % % %
BETTER (NET) 20 20 23 25 21 24 23 23 18 19
Will remain the
same 48 46 46 45 45 48 48 45 47 48
WORSE (NET) 32 35 31 30 33 28 29 31 35 33
2010 2011
Jan Mar April May June Aug Sept Oct Jan
% % % % % % % % %
BETTER (NET) 21 21 22 25 21 22 22 22 27
Will remain the
same 49 47 50 47 52 52 50 49 46
--------------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
WORSE (NET) 30 32 29 28 27 26 28 29 27
----------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 4
PERSONAL FINANCIAL EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT 6 MONTHS - BY GENERATION
AND POLITICAL PARTY
"Thinking about your household's financial condition, do you expect
it to be better or worse in the next 6 months?"
Base: All adults
Total Generation
Echo Gen X Baby Matures
Boomers (35-46) Boomers (66+)
(18-34) (47-65)
% % % % %
BETTER (NET) 27 39 24 23 17
Will be much better 6 12 4 4 4
Will be somewhat
better 21 27 20 19 13
Will remain the same 46 45 53 45 44
WORSE (NET) 27 16 23 33 39
Will be somewhat worse 18 12 14 22 29
Will be much worse 8 4 9 10 10
Political
Party
Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % %
BETTER (NET) 16 40 23
Will be much better 3 12 4
Will be somewhat
better 13 28 20
Will remain the same 42 47 48
WORSE (NET) 42 13 29
Will be somewhat worse 29 10 20
Will be much worse 12 4 8
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 5A
COMPARING SAVINGS
"Are you saving more or less now than you were...?"
Base: All adults
MORE Somewhat
(NET) Much more Same
more
% % % %
In 2008 before the downturn
in the economy 25 10 14 35
A year ago 21 7 14 42
Three months ago 16 5 11 53
Somewhat
LESS less Much
(NET) less
% % %
In 2008 before the downturn
in the economy 40 16 24
A year ago 37 17 20
Three months ago 31 14 17
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 5B
COMPARING SAVINGS - TREND
"Are you saving more or less now than you were...?"
Summary of those saying "more"
Base: All adults
2010 2011 Generation
Echo Gen X Baby Matures
Boomers (35-46) Boomers (66+)
(18-34) (47-65)
% % % % % %
In 2008 before the
downturn in the
economy 18 25 39 20 19 13
A year ago NA 21 37 17 14 11
Three months ago 14 16 27 15 11 5
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding; NA indicates
not asked that year
TABLE 6A
RATING OF CURRENT JOB MARKET - TREND
"How would you rate the current job market of your region of the
nation?"
Base: All adults
2008 2009
June July Jan April June Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
% % % % % % % % % %
GOOD (NET) 28 30 6 12 9 8 10 10 8 9
Neither good nor bad 18 19 18 20 19 21 22 20 18 19
-------------------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BAD (NET) 53 51 76 68 72 71 68 70 73 72
--------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2010 2011
Jan Mar. April May June Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
% % % % % % % % % % %
GOOD (NET) 10 8 10 12 10 12 10 13 11 13 13
Neither
good nor
bad 20 18 21 20 25 22 21 21 23 24 22
--------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
BAD (NET) 70 73 70 68 66 66 69 66 66 63 65
--------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 6B
RATING OF CURRENT JOB MARKET IN YOUR REGION - BY REGION
"How would you rate the current job market of your region of the
nation?"
Base: All adults
Total Region
East Midwest South West
% % % % %
GOOD (NET) 13 18 9 15 10
Very good 4 12 2 1 2
Somewhat good 9 6 7 14 8
Neither good nor bad 22 20 19 23 23
BAD (NET) 65 61 72 61 67
Somewhat bad 37 39 37 36 35
Very bad 28 22 35 25 32
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding; * indicates
less than 0.5%
TABLE 7
EXPECTATIONS FOR JOB MARKET IN SIX MONTHS - TREND
"How do you think that the job market in your region of the
nation will change over the next 6 months?"
Base: All adults
Jan. April June Aug
2009 2009 2009 2009
% % % %
BETTER (NET) 15 23 21 28
Will be much better 1 3 2 2
Will be somewhat
better 14 20 19 26
Will remain the
same 36 42 47 47
WORSE (NET) 49 36 32 25
Will be somewhat
worse 36 29 24 19
Will be much worse 14 7 8 6
June Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011
% % % % % % %
BETTER (NET) 26 23 21 23 30 25 31
Will be much better 1 2 2 3 2 2 4
Will be somewhat
better 25 21 19 20 28 23 26
Will remain the
same 53 49 53 53 50 54 51
WORSE (NET) 21 27 26 24 21 22 18
Will be somewhat
worse 15 22 20 18 15 16 13
Will be much worse 6 5 6 6 6 6 6
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding;
Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between January 17 to 24, 2011 among 2,566 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
J39369
Q705, 710, 715, 720, 725, 730
The Harris Poll® #12, February 1, 2011
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us - and our clients - stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit .
Press Contact:
Corporate Communications
Harris Interactive
212-539-9600
press@harrisinteractive.net
SOURCE Harris Interactive
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