Published: February 01, 2011

For the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes, Clinical Data and Interviewed Experts Indicate That Amylin/Eli Lilly/Alkermes' Bydureon Has Weight-Loss Advantages over Takeda's Actos and Merck's Januvia

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BURLINGTON, Mass. - (BUSINESS WIRE) - Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that, for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, surveyed endocrinologists and managed care organization's (MCOs) pharmacy directors agree that body weight loss is one of the attributes that most influences their decisions regarding prescribing and tier placement decisions. Clinical data and the opinions of interviewed thought leaders indicate that Amylin/Eli Lilly/Alkermes' Bydureon has advantages in this attribute over Takeda's Actos and Merck's Januvia, the two sales-leading agents in the market.

The findings from Decision Resources' analysis of the type 2 diabetes drug market also reveal that Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca's SGLT-2 inhibitor dapagliflozin has the potential to challenge Bydureon on the attribute of body weight loss.

"Dapagliflozin, like saxagliptin, will be an important drug in Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca's type 2 diabetes armamentarium as some of the experts we interviewed believe that SGLT-2 inhibitors are one of the most exciting new drug classes in development for the indication," said Decision Resources Analyst Yannick Maneuf, Ph.D. "However, other interviewed physicians said they are doubtful that this drug class will be embraced by clinicians and patients, given the increased risk of genito-urinary side effects."

The findings also reveal that metformin's overall efficacy, together with its low price and high level of physician familiarity is a significant contributing factor to its high patient share in the type 2 diabetes market. Additionally, with regard to accessibility, surveyed endocrinologists rate metformin higher than glimepiride (Sanofi-Aventis's Amaryl, generics) although both metformin and glimepiride were rated higher than Januvia and Novo Nordisk's Victoza by surveyed physicians on all attributes of accessibility. This is likely due to the availability of low-cost generic versions of metformin and glimepiride, whereas sitagliptin and liraglutide are two of the most expensive current agents in the type 2 diabetes drug market.

The type 2 diabetes drug market will experience robust growth over the next decade, increasing from $20.5 billion in 2009 to $36 billion in 2019 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and Japan. The principal drivers of market growth will include a steady increase in the drug-treated patient population and a large pipeline of products that are expected to launch over the next several years. The incretins (DPP-IV inhibitors and GLP-1 analogues) will experience the biggest increase in market share, growing from 12 percent in 2009 to 27 percent in 2019. Januvia currently dominates the DPP-IV inhibitor class and will consolidate its leading position though 2019 as other DPP-IV inhibitors will struggle, owing to their lack of clinical advantages over Januvia.

Decision Resources' Robust Market Forecast and Opportunities Analysis

Decision Resources provides a comprehensive view of what is happening in a specific drug market now and in the decade ahead. The research includes analysis of the unmet need and near-term drug development opportunities that exist within a drug market powered by primary research from physicians and payers. The robust market forecast and opportunities analysis is comprised of the Pharmacor 2011 advisory service and the DecisionBase 2011 report series.

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