Published: September 01, 2010
August Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®; PMI at 56.3%; New Orders, Production and Employment Growing; Supplier Deliveries Slower; Inventories Growing
TEMPE, Ariz. - (BUSINESS WIRE) - Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August
for the 13th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for
the 16th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the
latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.
The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of
the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey
Committee. "Manufacturing activity continued at a very positive rate in
August as the PMI rose slightly when compared to July. In terms of
month-over-month improvement, the Production and Employment Indexes
experienced the greatest gains, while new orders continued to grow but
at a slightly slower rate. August represents the 13th consecutive month
of growth in U.S. manufacturing."
PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY
Eleven of the 18 manufacturing industries are reporting growth in
August, in the following order: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather &
Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products;
Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous
Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Chemical
Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Printing & Related
Support Activities. The five industries reporting contraction in August
are: Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products;
Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Machinery.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
-
"Still experiencing intermittent delays in electronic components due
to capacity and raw materials." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components)
-
"International sales are especially strong. Domestic business is
solid." (Chemical Products)
-
"Orders and business still strong." (Primary Metals)
-
"Order rate has slowed some. Supplier capacity in general seems to be
improved." (Machinery)
-
"Large customers reducing pull rates for production." (Computer &
Electronic Products)
|
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE AUGUST 2010
|
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Index
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Series Index August
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Series Index July
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Percentage Point Change
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Direction
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Rate of Change
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Trend(a) (Months)
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PMI
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56.3
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55.5
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+0.8
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Growing
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Faster
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13
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New Orders
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53.1
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53.5
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-0.4
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Growing
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Slower
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14
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Production
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59.9
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57.0
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+2.9
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Growing
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Faster
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15
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Employment
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60.4
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58.6
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+1.8
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Growing
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Faster
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9
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Supplier Deliveries
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56.6
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58.3
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-1.7
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Slowing
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Slower
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15
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Inventories
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51.4
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50.2
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+1.2
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Growing
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Faster
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2
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Customers' Inventories
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43.5
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39.0
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+4.5
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Too Low
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Slower
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17
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Prices
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61.5
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57.5
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+4.0
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Increasing
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Faster
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14
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Backlog of Orders
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51.5
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54.5
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-3.0
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Growing
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Slower
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8
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Exports
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55.5
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56.5
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-1.0
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Growing
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Slower
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14
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Imports
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56.5
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52.5
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+4.0
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Growing
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Faster
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12
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OVERALL ECONOMY
Manufacturing Sector
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Growing
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Faster
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16
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Growing
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Faster
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13
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(a) Number of months moving in current direction
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE
and IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Caustic Soda; Copper; and Corrugated Containers (6).
Commodities Down in Price
Polyethylene (2); Polypropylene; and Steel (2).
Commodities in Short Supply
Capacitors (2) is the only commodity listed in short supply.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is
indicated after each item.
AUGUST 2010 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
PMI
Manufacturing continued to grow in August as the PMI registered 56.3
percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point when compared to July's
reading of 55.5 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the
manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates
that it is generally contracting.
A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, generally
indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI
indicates growth for the 16th consecutive month in the overall economy,
as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 13th
consecutive month. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI
and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for
January through August (57.8 percent) corresponds to a 5.3 percent
increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI
for August (56.3 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 4.8 percent
increase in real GDP annually."
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
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Month
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PMI
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Month
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PMI
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Aug 2010
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56.3
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Feb 2010
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56.5
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Jul 2010
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55.5
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Jan 2010
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58.4
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Jun 2010
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56.2
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Dec 2009
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54.9
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May 2010
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59.7
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Nov 2009
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53.7
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Apr 2010
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60.4
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Oct 2009
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55.2
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Mar 2010
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59.6
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Sep 2009
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52.4
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Average for 12 months - 56.6
High - 60.4
Low - 52.4
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New Orders
ISM's New Orders Index registered 53.1 percent in August, which is a
decrease of 0.4 percentage point when compared to the 53.5 percent
reported in July. This is the 14th consecutive month of growth in the
New Orders Index. A New Orders Index above 50.2 percent, over time, is
generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on
manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
The eight industries reporting growth in new orders in August - listed
in order - are: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products;
Paper Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment,
Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation
Equipment; and Chemical Products. The six industries reporting decreases
in new orders in August - listed in order - are: Nonmetallic Mineral
Products; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products;
Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Products.
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New Orders
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%Better
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%Same
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%Worse
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Net
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Index
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Aug 2010
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29
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49
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22
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+7
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53.1
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Jul 2010
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27
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53
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20
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+7
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53.5
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Jun 2010
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36
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50
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14
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+22
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58.5
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May 2010
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50
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|
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38
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12
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+38
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65.7
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Production
ISM's Production Index registered 59.9 percent in August, which is an
increase of 2.9 percentage points from the July reading of 57 percent.
An index above 51 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an
increase in the Federal Reserve Board's Industrial Production figures.
This is the 15th consecutive month the Production Index has registered
above 50 percent.
The 11 industries reporting growth in production during the month of
August - listed in order - are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products;
Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components;
Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Paper Products; Transportation Equipment;
Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products;
Computer & Electronic Products; and Chemical Products. The four
industries reporting a decrease in production in August are: Petroleum &
Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related
Products; and Printing & Related Support Activities.
|
Production
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%Better
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%Same
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%Worse
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Net
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Index
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|
|
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Aug 2010
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|
|
33
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53
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14
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+19
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59.9
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Jul 2010
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|
31
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50
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19
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+12
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57.0
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Jun 2010
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|
40
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|
|
47
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|
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|
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13
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+27
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61.4
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|
May 2010
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|
51
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37
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|
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12
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|
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+39
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|
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66.6
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Employment
ISM's Employment Index registered 60.4 percent in August, which is 1.8
percentage points higher than the 58.6 percent reported in July. This is
the ninth consecutive month of growth in manufacturing employment. An
Employment Index above 49.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent
with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on
manufacturing employment.
Ten of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in employment in
August in the following order: Transportation Equipment; Paper Products;
Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Computer &
Electronic Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment,
Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage &
Tobacco Products; and Chemical Products. Furniture & Related Products is
the only industry reporting a decrease in employment during August.
|
Employment
|
|
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%Higher
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%Same
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|
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%Lower
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Net
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|
|
Index
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
26
|
|
|
|
|
69
|
|
|
|
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
+21
|
|
|
|
|
60.4
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|
Jul 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
26
|
|
|
|
|
66
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
|
|
|
|
+18
|
|
|
|
|
58.6
|
|
Jun 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
26
|
|
|
|
|
63
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
|
|
|
|
+15
|
|
|
|
|
57.8
|
|
May 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
28
|
|
|
|
|
66
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
+22
|
|
|
|
|
59.8
|
Supplier Deliveries
The delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was
slower in August as the Supplier Deliveries Index registered 56.6
percent, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than the 58.3 percent
registered in July. This is the 15th consecutive month the Supplier
Deliveries Index has been above 50 percent. A reading above 50 percent
indicates slower deliveries.
The 10 industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in August -
listed in order - are: Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic
Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Electrical
Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous
Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Food, Beverage
& Tobacco Products. There were no industry reports of faster deliveries
in August.
|
Supplier Deliveries
|
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%Slower
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%Same
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|
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%Faster
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Net
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|
|
Index
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
19
|
|
|
|
|
78
|
|
|
|
|
3
|
|
|
|
|
+16
|
|
|
|
|
56.6
|
|
Jul 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
28
|
|
|
|
|
66
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
+22
|
|
|
|
|
58.3
|
|
Jun 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
23
|
|
|
|
|
71
|
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
+17
|
|
|
|
|
57.3
|
|
May 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
29
|
|
|
|
|
66
|
|
|
|
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
+24
|
|
|
|
|
61.0
|
Inventories
Manufacturers' inventories grew in August as the Inventories Index
registered 51.4 percent. The index is 1.2 percentage points higher than
the 50.2 percent reported in July. An Inventories Index greater than
42.6 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the
Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing
inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
The eight industries reporting higher inventories in August - listed in
order - are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related
Support Activities; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals;
Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products;
Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The six industries
reporting decreases in inventories in August - listed in order - are:
Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Paper
Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and
Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
|
Inventories
|
|
|
|
|
|
%Higher
|
|
|
|
|
%Same
|
|
|
|
|
%Lower
|
|
|
|
|
Net
|
|
|
|
|
Index
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
19
|
|
|
|
|
68
|
|
|
|
|
13
|
|
|
|
|
+6
|
|
|
|
|
51.4
|
|
Jul 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
19
|
|
|
|
|
60
|
|
|
|
|
21
|
|
|
|
|
-2
|
|
|
|
|
50.2
|
|
Jun 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
13
|
|
|
|
|
66
|
|
|
|
|
21
|
|
|
|
|
-8
|
|
|
|
|
45.8
|
|
May 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
13
|
|
|
|
|
66
|
|
|
|
|
21
|
|
|
|
|
-8
|
|
|
|
|
45.6
|
Customers' Inventories(b)
The ISM Customers' Inventories Index registered 43.5 percent in August,
4.5 percentage points higher than in July when the index registered 39
percent. This is the 17th consecutive month the Customers' Inventories
Index has been below 50 percent, indicating that respondents believe
their customers' inventories are too low at this time.
Miscellaneous Manufacturing is the only manufacturing industry reporting
customers' inventories as being too high during August. The eight
industries reporting customers' inventories as too low during August -
listed in order - are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Printing & Related
Support Activities; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products;
Machinery; and Fabricated Metal Products.
|
Customers' Inventories
|
|
|
% Reporting
|
|
|
%Too High
|
|
|
%About Right
|
|
|
%Too Low
|
|
|
Net
|
|
|
Index
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 2010
|
|
|
65
|
|
|
11
|
|
|
65
|
|
|
24
|
|
|
-13
|
|
|
43.5
|
|
Jul 2010
|
|
|
81
|
|
|
6
|
|
|
66
|
|
|
28
|
|
|
-22
|
|
|
39.0
|
|
Jun 2010
|
|
|
67
|
|
|
4
|
|
|
68
|
|
|
28
|
|
|
-24
|
|
|
38.0
|
|
May 2010
|
|
|
69
|
|
|
5
|
|
|
54
|
|
|
41
|
|
|
-36
|
|
|
32.0
|
Prices(b)
The ISM Prices Index registered 61.5 percent in August, 4 percentage
points higher than the 57.5 percent reported in July. This is the 14th
consecutive month the Prices Index has registered above 50 percent.
While 35 percent of respondents reported paying higher prices and 12
percent reported paying lower prices, 53 percent of supply executives
reported paying the same prices as in July. A Prices Index above 49.3
percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Index of Manufacturers Prices.
The 12 industries reporting paying increased prices during the month of
August - listed in order - are: Paper Products; Primary Metals;
Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Apparel, Leather & Allied
Products; Transportation Equipment; Printing & Related Support
Activities; Chemical Products; Furniture & Related Products; Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products; Machinery; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and
Computer & Electronic Products. The three industries reporting paying
lower prices on average during August are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products;
Fabricated Metal Products; and Plastics & Rubber Products.
|
Prices
|
|
|
|
|
|
%Higher
|
|
|
|
|
%Same
|
|
|
|
|
%Lower
|
|
|
|
|
Net
|
|
|
|
|
Index
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
35
|
|
|
|
|
53
|
|
|
|
|
12
|
|
|
|
|
+23
|
|
|
|
|
61.5
|
|
Jul 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
33
|
|
|
|
|
49
|
|
|
|
|
18
|
|
|
|
|
+15
|
|
|
|
|
57.5
|
|
Jun 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
32
|
|
|
|
|
50
|
|
|
|
|
18
|
|
|
|
|
+14
|
|
|
|
|
57.0
|
|
May 2010
|
|
|
|
|
|
60
|
|
|
|
|
35
|
|
|
|
|
5
|
|
|
|
|
+55
|
|
|
|
|
77.5
|
Backlog of Orders(b)
ISM's Backlog of Orders Index registered 51.5 percent in August, 3
percentage points lower than the 54.5 percent reported in July. Of the
84 percent of respondents who reported their backlog of orders, 25
percent reported greater backlogs, 22 percent reported smaller backlogs,
and 53 percent reported no change from July.
The eight industries reporting increased order backlogs in August -
listed in order - are: Paper Products; Primary Metals; Computer &
Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment,
Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal
Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The seven industries
reporting decreases in order backlogs during August - listed in order -
are: Furniture & Related Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products;
Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing
& Related Support Activities; Machinery; and Chemical Products.
|
Backlog of Orders
|
|
|
% Reporting
|
|
|
%Greater
|
|
|
%Same
|
|
|
%Less
|
|
|
Net
|
|
|
Index
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 2010
|
|
|
84
|
|
|
25
|
|
|
53
|
|
|
22
|
|
|
+3
|
|
|
51.5
|
|
Jul 2010
|
|
|
86
|
|
|
28
|
|
|
53
|
|
|
19
|
|
|
+9
|
|
|
54.5
|
|
Jun 2010
|
|
|
85
|
|
|
31
|
|
|
52
|
|
|
17
|
|
|
+14
|
|
|
57.0
|
|
May 2010
|
|
|
85
|
|
|
30
|
|
|
59
|
|
|
11
|
|
|
+19
|
|
|
59.5
|
New Export Orders(b)
ISM's New Export Orders Index registered 55.5 percent in August, which
is 1 percentage point lower than the 56.5 percent reported in July. This
is the 14th consecutive month of growth in the New Export Orders Index.
The 10 industries reporting growth in new export orders in August -
listed in order - are: Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals;
Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing;
Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and
Chemical Products. None of the 18 manufacturing industries reported a
decrease in export orders during August.
|
New Export Orders
|
|
|
% Reporting
|
|
|
%Higher
|
|
|
%Same
|
|
|
%Lower
|
|
|
Net
|
|
|
Index
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 2010
|
|
|
80
|
|
|
16
|
|
|
79
|
|
|
5
|
|
|
+11
|
|
|
55.5
|
|
Jul 2010
|
|
|
78
|
|
|
20
|
|
|
73
|
|
|
7
|
|
|
+13
|
|
|
56.5
|
|
Jun 2010
|
|
|
78
|
|
|
19
|
|
|
74
|
|
|
7
|
|
|
+12
|
|
|
56.0
|
|
May 2010
|
|
|
78
|
|
|
28
|
|
|
68
|
|
|
4
|
|
|
+24
|
|
|
62.0
|
Imports(b)
Imports of materials by manufacturers expanded in August as the Imports
Index registered 56.5 percent, 4 percentage points higher than the 52.5
reported in July. This is the 12th consecutive month of growth in
imports.
The nine industries reporting growth in imports during the month of
August are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related
Support Activities; Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances &
Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Computer & Electronic Products;
Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and
Machinery. The two industries reporting a decrease in imports during
August are: Miscellaneous Manufacturing and Chemical Products.
|
Imports
|
|
|
% Reporting
|
|
|
%Higher
|
|
|
%Same
|
|
|
%Lower
|
|
|
Net
|
|
|
Index
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 2010
|
|
|
80
|
|
|
18
|
|
|
77
|
|
|
5
|
|
|
+13
|
|
|
56.5
|
|
Jul 2010
|
|
|
78
|
|
|
14
|
|
|
77
|
|
|
9
|
|
|
+5
|
|
|
52.5
|
|
Jun 2010
|
|
|
77
|
|
|
20
|
|
|
73
|
|
|
7
|
|
|
+13
|
|
|
56.5
|
|
May 2010
|
|
|
82
|
|
|
17
|
|
|
79
|
|
|
4
|
|
|
+13
|
|
|
56.5
|
(b) The Backlog of Orders, Prices, Customers' Inventories, Imports and
New Export Orders Indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal
adjustments.
Buying Policy
Average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures increased 15 days
to 127 days. Average lead time for Production Materials remained
unchanged at 52 days. Average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and
Operating (MRO) Supplies decreased 2 days to 21 days.
|
Percent Reporting
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Capital Expenditures
|
|
|
Hand-to- Mouth
|
|
|
30 Days
|
|
|
60 Days
|
|
|
90 Days
|
|
|
6 Months
|
|
|
1 Year+
|
|
|
Average Days
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 2010
|
|
|
26
|
|
|
4
|
|
|
10
|
|
|
14
|
|
|
33
|
|
|
13
|
|
|
127
|
|
Jul 2010
|
|
|
30
|
|
|
7
|
|
|
11
|
|
|
13
|
|
|
28
|
|
|
11
|
|
|
112
|
|
Jun 2010
|
|
|
28
|
|
|
8
|
|
|
9
|
|
|
16
|
|
|
29
|
|
|
10
|
|
|
112
|
|
May 2010
|
|
|
32
|
|
|
8
|
|
|
9
|
|
|
15
|
|
|
26
|
|
|
10
|
|
|
106
|
|
Production Materials
|
|
|
Hand-to- Mouth
|
|
|
30 Days
|
|
|
60 Days
|
|
|
90 Days
|
|
|
6 Months
|
|
|
1 Year+
|
|
|
Average Days
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 2010
|
|
|
23
|
|
|
34
|
|
|
25
|
|
|
13
|
|
|
2
|
|
|
3
|
|
|
52
|
|
Jul 2010
|
|
|
23
|
|
|
35
|
|
|
24
|
|
|
11
|
|
|
5
|
|
|
2
|
|
|
52
|
|
Jun 2010
|
|
|
25
|
|
|
36
|
|
|
22
|
|
|
11
|
|
|
4
|
|
|
2
|
|
|
50
|
|
May 2010
|
|
|
22
|
|
|
41
|
|
|
21
|
|
|
10
|
|
|
5
|
|
|
1
|
|
|
48
|
|
MRO Supplies
|
|
|
Hand-to- Mouth
|
|
|
30 Days
|
|
|
60 Days
|
|
|
90 Days
|
|
|
6 Months
|
|
|
1 Year+
|
|
|
Average Days
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aug 2010
|
|
|
54
|
|
|
35
|
|
|
8
|
|
|
3
|
|
|
0
|
|
|
0
|
|
|
21
|
|
Jul 2010
|
|
|
50
|
|
|
38
|
|
|
7
|
|
|
5
|
|
|
0
|
|
|
0
|
|
|
23
|
|
Jun 2010
|
|
|
48
|
|
|
38
|
|
|
11
|
|
|
3
|
|
|
0
|
|
|
0
|
|
|
23
|
|
May 2010
|
|
|
51
|
|
|
36
|
|
|
10
|
|
|
2
|
|
|
1
|
|
|
0
|
|
|
23
|
About this Report
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing
supply managers based on information they have collected within their
respective organizations. ISM makes no representation, other than that
stated within this release, regarding the individual company data
collection procedures. Use of the data is in the public domain and
should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in
decision-making.
Data and Method of Presentation
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business
is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives
nationwide. Membership of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee is
diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross
domestic product (GDP). Manufacturing Business Survey Committee
responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Food,
Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied
Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support
Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics &
Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals;
Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products;
Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment;
Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products
such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys
and office supplies).
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month
compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New
Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production,
Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers' Inventories, Employment and
Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the
net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic
direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the
negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier
Deliveries), and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are
never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive
responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered
positive).
The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for
seasonal adjustments (PMI, New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier
Deliveries and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the
effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from
normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional
arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All
seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of
Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when
conditions warrant them. The PMI is a composite index based on the
seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators with
equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries
and Inventories.
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are
convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change
and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that
the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent
indicates that it is generally declining. A PMI in excess of 42 percent,
over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross
domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 42 percent, it is
generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 42 percent is
indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline. With some of the
indicators within this report, ISM has indicated the departure point
between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as
determined by regression analysis.
Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current
month's lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for
which commitments are made for Production Materials; Capital
Expenditures; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies,
expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six
months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average
number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not
seasonally adjusted since there is no significant seasonal pattern.
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business
is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management . The
Institute for Supply Management , established in 1915, is the largest
supply management organization in the world as well as one of the most
respected. ISM's mission is to lead the supply management profession
through its standards of excellence, research, promotional activities
and education. This report has been issued by the association since
1931, except for a four-year interruption during World War II.
The full text version of the Manufacturing ISM Report On
Business is posted on ISM's Web
site at www.ism.ws
on the first business day of every month after 10:10 a.m. (ET).
The next Manufacturing ISM Report On Business
featuring the September 2010 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. (ET) on
Friday, October 1, 2010.

Institute for Supply Management, Tempe
Rose Marie Goupil,
800-888-6276, Ext. 3015
E-mail: rgoupil@ism.ws
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