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Michigan Retailers Split on How Year Is Shaping Up

How is 2010 shaping up for Michigan retailers a little more than halfway through the year? Is it better, worse or about the same as they expected?

Retailers are almost evenly split on their assessments, according to the latest Michigan Retail Index survey, a joint project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Some 34 percent say it's going better than projected, 32 percent say it's on target and 34 percent say it's worse.

"This year has held some surprise for two thirds of retailers," said MRA President and CEO James P. Hallan. "Half of that group is pleasantly surprised and half disappointed. Overall, however, sales have been improving over last year, with the sharpest increases occurring in late winter and early spring."

June retail sales improved from May, but failed to get back to the levels of February, March and April, according to the Index.

Nationally, analysts described U.S. June retail sales as "choppy" and "mixed" and characterized consumers as sticking to "their thrifty ways" after boosting spending earlier.

The Michigan Retail Index survey for June found that 39 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 41 percent recorded declines and 20 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 46.6, up from 42.4 in May. A year ago June the sales performance index stood at 41.2.

Index values below 50 generally indicate a decrease in overall retail activity.

Looking ahead, 46 percent of retailers expect sales during the 3rd Quarter to improve over the same period last year, while 22 percent project a decrease and 32 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted outlook index at 60.7, down from 62.3 in May. A year ago June the sales outlook index stood at 48.7.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.

Michigan Retail Index
June 2010 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html

June Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales,
inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month
a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate May results)
           % Increased % Decreased % No Change Index*      Responses
Sales      39 (39)     41 (45)     20 (16)     46.6 (42.4) 127 (106)
Inventory  33 (35)     26 (26)     41 (39)     52.6 (52.1) 126 (104)
Prices     24 (28)     10 (11)     66 (61)     56.5 (59.5) 125 (104)
Promotions 36 (32)      8  (4)     56 (64)     63.8 (64.0) 124 (104)
Hiring     13 (12)     17 (15)     70 (73)     45.1 (45.3) 126 (101)



Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales,
inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period
a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate May results)
           % Increased % Decreased % No Change Index*      Responses
Sales      46 (49)     22 (20)     32 (31)     60.7 (62.3) 127 (106)
Inventory  34 (37)     21 (17)     45 (46)     55.2 (55.0) 125 (104)
Prices     18 (25)      4  (5)     78 (70)     55.5 (60.2) 125 (104)
Promotions 42 (38)      6  (7)     52 (55)     66.3(67.4)  124 (104)
Hiring     10 (11)     14 (10)     76 (79)     48.0 (49.4) 126 (104)



June Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in
parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months)
                   % Increased         % Decreased       % No Change
North              38 (52)            34 (21)            28 (27)
West               52 (68)            29 (10)            19 (22)
Central            30 (25)            55 (35)            15 (40)
East               14 (14)            43 (29)            43 (57)
Southeast          45 (52)            45 (22)            10 (26)

Question of the Month
Based on your sales for the first half of 2010, how would you characterize the year so far?

               A Little
Much Better    Better Than    About the Same A Little Worse Much Worse
Than Expected  Expected       As Expected    Than Expected  Than Expected
12%            22%            32%            17%            17%

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.