What Have We Learned from Swine Flu?

The American media circus has moved on, the drugstores are taking down the "H1N1 Vaccinations Available Here" signs, and most people have moved on. Like SARS, avian flu and Hantavirus, swine flu is yesterday's scare. But perhaps we're acting too fast in relegating this very real concern to the hall of fame for epidemics that might have been?

In the May/June 2010 issue of E - The Environmental Magazine, the nation's leading independent, nonprofit environmental publication, senior writer Jim Motavalli looks at the long-term implications of the world's scary bout with swine flu, and what needs to change before a similar health crisis hits us again (article posted at: www.emagazine.com/view/?5148).

Our bout with swine flu killed more than 12,000 people in the U.S. alone, and more than 25,000 worldwide. Germany, Portugal and China were the most infected countries. The highest death rate was in North Korea, where it killed 94 percent of the 50 people infected. But with cases milder than expected during the winter months, fears quickly diminished. Meanwhile, scientists are still studying pathways that could lead to a reappearance.
Take-Away Lessons

So what have we learned from swine flu? There is strong evidence that environmental factors -- specifically, water pollution at a Smithfield Farms hog operation in Perote, Mexico -- led to the outbreak last spring. The pork production plant there is one of the world's largest, slaughtering a million pigs annually, and local residents in Granjas Carroll (where 30 percent of the population were early victims of swine flu) complained that their water supply was contaminated.

Climate change has also been implicated in the spread of the virus. According to the Wildlife Conservation Society, new strains of avian flu were created when changing weather led to insect population explosions. The wild birds that eat those insects spread the disease to poultry, pigs and to people -- which was the case with avian flu in Asia. As Time magazine described it, "Pigs make particularly good biological mixing bowls since they can be infected by bird -- swine -- and human-flu viruses and provide a hospitable environment for the viruses to swap genes and create entirely new strains in a process called reassortment."

The close confinement of factory farmed animals, combined with changing climate and the rapid cross-continental movement of people has produced conditions ripe for the quick spread of viruses. "Nearly 75 percent of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in recent years have been transmitted to people directly or indirectly from animals," says the New York State Department of Health. The New York-based Wildlife Trust has concentrated on the intersection of environmental factors with human and animal diseases. "When you get a large concentration of pig farms, people, wild birds and poultry, these things do happen," says Trust President Peter Daszak.
What's Next?

The reasons for the disease's spread can be pieced together, but the reasons for its recession are less clear. And that has some scientists worried. "I can't find anybody who can tell me a biological explanation that makes sense," said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, in response to why the disease's wave receded.

One thing we do know: H1N1 isn't gone, it's just hiding. The virus, says the Washington Post, will "eventually infect -- but not necessarily sicken -- nearly everybody on Earth who isn't already immune to it through vaccination. It may take years. It could happen by unpredictable waves or slow percolation. But it is virtually inevitable."

E - The Environmental Magazine distributes 50,000 copies six times per year to subscribers and bookstores. Its website, www.emagazine.com, enjoys 100,000 monthly visitors. E also publishes EarthTalk, a nationally syndicated environmental Q&A column distributed free to 1,850 newspapers, magazines and websites throughout the U.S. and Canada (www.emagazine.com/earthtalk/thisweek). Single copies of E's May/June 2010 issue are available for $5 postpaid from: E Magazine, P.O. Box 469111, Escondido, CA 92046. Subscriptions are $29.95 per year, available at the same address.