Published: April 16, 2010
Office Pool Nepal - 2067
By John Child in Kathmandu
2066 was a year of stagnation in Nepal. No matter how pessimistic you were a year ago, could you have imagined that the country's leaders would have let a whole year go by without doing anything at all about development, the peace process or a new constitution?
How did you do on last year's poll? (See Office Pool - 2066). Try again this year with a new poll, presented in homage to The New York Times' op-ed columnist William Safire. As he reminds his readers each year, "Only those daring to play now can claim hooting rights later."
Choose one answer, multiple answers, or "none."
1) If the Nepali Congress Party remains unified their next president will be
(a) Sher Bahadur Deuba
(b) Ram Chandra Poudel
(c) Sushil Koirala
(d) Sujata Koirala
(e) A power-sharing leadership
2. Which party will split first in 2067?
(a) The Maoists, between hard-liners and pragmatists
(b) The UML: Oli and Nepal will take the centrists out after the current government falls
(c) The NC due to their inability to choose a new leader
3. In 2067 the Army's role will be
(a) Support for whatever civilian government is in power
(b) Active politicking behind the scenes
(c) In turmoil as its senior officers split into two camps
(d) Leading the government
4. Nepal's next government will be
(a) The same as today: Hanging together is their best option
(b) A new, broad-based coalition with a bare majority and the Maoists still in opposition
(c) A unity government including the Maoists
(d) A Maoist-led left coalition
(e) A military/royalist government
5. This year the Madesh parties will
(a) Stick together and keep trying
(b) Give up on One Madesh, One Pradesh
(c) Turn violent
(d) Try to secede from the country
6. The State Restructuring commission will
(a) Recommend the Maoist-backed 14-state plan
(b) Recommend a six or seven state system divided by north-south borders
(c) Recommend a system of states based primarily on economic practicality
(d) Make no recommendation even if they meet
7. The Peace and Reconciliation Commission will
(a) Be formed and become the central force in a new political compromise
(b) Be formed but accomplish nothing in 2067
(c) Be formed and set up a South African-style system which will fail
(d) Never be formed
8. If the Maoists don't form a majority government by June, they will
(a) Stick with the politics of obstruction as in 2066 and keep trying
(b) Splinter
(c) Take their street movement to Jana Andolan heights
(d) Resume armed conflict
(e) Join in a unity government which they don't control
9. The Chinese role in Nepal during 2067 will be to
(a) Stick to their past pattern of hands-off Nepal issues aside from the Tibetan refugees
(b) Become much more active in politics here to counter India
(c) Become much larger aid donors to try to gain goodwill among the Nepali people
(d) Become active supporters the Maoists
10. The Indian role in Nepal during 2067 will be to
(a) Open secret military-to-military talks in support of a return of the monarchy
(b) Maintain their current attempts to influence all the parties behind the scenes
(c) Actively support centrist politicians and denounce the Maoists
(d) Wash their hands of politics
(e) Become much larger aid donors to try to counter China
11. The CA will complete its work and present a constitution for ratification
(a) In 2067
(b) In 2068
(c) In 2069
(d) Never
12. In 2067 the Maoist combatants in the cantonments will
(a) Be unilaterally discharged by PLA commanders and sent home
(b) Be sent out of the camps to join the YCL
(c) Continue to trickle away out of boredom and disillusionment
(d) Be integrated into the security forces or receive training/cash
13. The crime rate in 2067 will
(a) Rise sharply: The police are incompetent
(b) Fall a bit as the police gain a foothold against criminals
(c) Fall a bit as neighborhood watch programs and private security forces are formed
14. Nepal Tourism Year 2011 will
(a) Get off to a flying start by the end of 2067 and draw a large number of visitors
(b) Slightly increase tourism
(c) Be foiled by bad international media reports of deteriorating conditions in Nepal
(d) Be largely forgotten by everyone except tourism entrepreneurs
15. The big social movement of 2067 will be
(a) An anti-political groundswell of anger against all parties
(b) The party and club movement will spread fast to towns all over the nation
(c) More moviegoing and private social events in an attempt to forget the country's ills
(d) The emergence of a youth culture that even middle-aged Nepalis will try to emulate
----
My picks: 1 (b) ; 2 (c); 3 (a) and (b); 4 (b); 5 (none, they will splinter and founder); 6 (d); 7 (d); 8 (c); 9 (a) and (c); 10 (b) and (e); 11 (b); 12 (c) and then (b); 13 (a); 14 (c) and (d); 15 (all)
John Child is The NewsBlaze Nepal Correspondent, a journalist in Kathmandu who writes about goings-on in and around Nepal and her neighbors.
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