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Modest Employment Outlook in Second Half for Kansas

Signs of economic weakness in Kansas in 2009 compared to 2008 include:

• A decrease of 16,633 jobs in the durable goods producing sector, for a decline of about 13.7 percent between 2008 and 2009.
• An unemployment rate that rose 2.3 percentage points to 6.7 percent annually, substantially higher than the 4.4 percent of 2008. The average number of the unemployed individuals in Kansas in 2009 reached nearly 102,000.
• The number of outbound air passengers decreased 7.3 percent at Wichita's Mid-Continent Airport, while declining 9.3 percent at Kansas City's International Airport.

There are signs of recovery on the horizon.

• Creighton University's leading index has hovered around 50 since summer 2009. It has increased since its June trough, sitting at 50.8 in February 2010.
• The Kansas unemployment rate has remained well below the United States unemployment rate. While the Kansas unemployment rate reached a peak of 7.9 percent in July, the U.S. unemployment rate reached a high of 10.6 percent (not seasonally adjusted) in January 2010.
• The percentage of total non-farm employment lost in Kansas is lower than in the U.S. leaving Kansas better positioned for recovery. The number of total nonfarm jobs lost in Kansas declined 4.8 percent from its peak in May 2008, while the nation lost 6.2 percent of all employment from its peak in November 2007.

The Kansas indicators, when taken together, point to a year of slowing decline, followed by a sluggish rebound in the state. In 2010, Kansas employment is projected to remain relatively flat, losing less than 600 jobs. The contracting production sector will be pulling down Kansas' growth with an expected loss of 3.8 percent in combination with an expected decrease of 0.4 percent in the trade, transportation and utilities sectors. Service sectors are expected to remain flat. Government employment, while difficult to estimate, is expected to increase 3.5 percent, fueled by American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds, ongoing Base Realignment and Closure Recommendations and Census 2010 employment.

To read the complete 2010 forecast revision for Kansas, click here.

The Center for Economic Development and Business Research is part of the W. Frank Barton School of Business within Wichita State University. The Center is an applied research center that provides forecasting and market analysis for the Wichita MSA and Kansas. It has been a vital link between the business and economic development community and the University for over thirty years. For more information visit www.wichita.edu/cedbr.

Center for Economic Development and Business Research
Jeremy Hill, 316-213-3673
Director
Jeremy.Hill@wichita.edu
www.wichita.edu/cedbr