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Global Warming will Cause a Deep Freeze First

By Cheryl Pellerin

MEASURABLE EFFECTS TODAY

From the Adaptation! blog: The Copenhagen Accord and several international declarations have stated that global average temperature rise should be limited to 2 degrees Celsius or less. But what does that really mean for people across the globe and other life forms?

First, it's important to note that climate change is already having an impact on temperature and sea level. In the 20th century, average global temperature rose by 0.74 degrees C (1.3 degrees F) and sea level, because warming water causes water to expand, rose by 17 centimeters (6.7 inches).

Climate change is also causing an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of floods, droughts and heat waves and a related increase in human illness and death. Globally, the area affected by drought has increased since the 1970s.

Precipitation has increased significantly in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and central Asia and declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of south Asia. Hundreds of millions of people now face increased water stress such as damage from floods and storms.

IF TEMPERATURES RISE BY 2 DEGREES C

According to the IPCC, if global average temperature rises by 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F), rising sea levels and melting snow and ice across the globe could submerge several small island states and Bangladesh. The Maldives islands, with land surface barely a meter or two above sea level, will suffer major danger to life and property with every storm surge and major upwelling of the seas.

Up to 30 percent of species will be at increasing risk of extinction. Most corals will be bleached. Millions more people could experience coastal flooding each year. Some kinds of food productivity will decrease in low latitudes and rise in mid to high latitudes. Ecosystems will change. Growing numbers of people in the poorest countries will suffer from malnutrition and from diarrheal, cardio-respiratory and infectious diseases.

The Copenhagen Accord proposes to assess by 2015 how countries are keeping the global temperature rise below 2 degrees C. At that time, nations could consider changing the temperature-rise goal to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

Read more about international mitigation ( http://www.america.gov/st/energy-english/2009/November/20091112152253lcnirellep0.7552759.html ) and adaptation ( http://www.america.gov/st/energy-english/2009/August/20090828131104lcnirellep0.1748773.html ) efforts, the trade-offs ( http://www.america.gov/st/energy-english/2009/December/20091217092133AClehcieR0.5745661.html ) necessary to keeping global temperature at 2 degrees C or below, and the reasons ( http://www.america.gov/st/energy-english/2009/April/20090416163105lcnirellep0.843487.html ) there will be some rise in temperature no matter what nations do today to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Learn more and share your thoughts ( http://www.facebook.com/ConversationsClimate ).

(This is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://www.america.gov)