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Research and Markets: 3Q09 Bangladesh Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013

Total wireless subscribers in Bangladesh to reach 69.1 million with GrameenPhone's market share declining to 37.1%

Mobile Operator Forecast on Bangladesh provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Bangladesh's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Bangladesh include: Banglalink/Sheba (Orascom Telecom Holding S.A.E), GrameenPhone (Telenor ASA), TM Int'l (Telekom Malaysia Berhad), PBTL (Singapore Telecommunications Ltd), Warid Telecom International, and BTTB (Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

• Subscriber growth in Bangladesh's wireless market remains strong, but growth is slowing down +21.8% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
• ARPUs continue declining in Bangladesh
• 13.1% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
• Minutes of Use per subscriber are increasing +21.1 industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009
• Strong EBITDA growth at GrameenPhone in the latest quarter GrameenPhone's EBITDA growth was +29.8% in 1Q.2009

ARPU levels in Bangladesh will be declining from 2009 to 2013

• We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from USD 3.54 to USD 2.20 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
• Given the past and the current pricing strategies at the operators, our model predicts that Bangalink's ARPU will decrease from USD 2.99 in 2008 to USD 2.29 in 2013, and GrameenPhone's ARPU will fall from USD 3.81 in 2008 to USD 2.14 in 2013.

GrameenPhone's EBITDA margin will be improving over the next several years

• We expect that GrameenPhone's profitability will be increasing over the forecast period. Our model predicts that GrameenPhone's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 45.6% in 2008 to 55.8% in 2013.

Companies Mentioned:

• Banglalink/Sheba (Orascom Telecom Holding S.A.E)
• GrameenPhone (Telenor ASA)
• TM Int'l (Telekom Malaysia Berhad)
• PBTL (Singapore Telecommunications Ltd)
• Warid Telecom International
• BTTB (Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board)

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/31a8dc/3q09_bangladesh_mo

Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager,
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