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Coda Research Consultancy releases extensive and in-depth market and behavioral analyses and forecasts into US mobile broadband.

Coda Research Consultancy, a leader in market and behavioral research into new technologies, today released the results of its extensive and in-depth study into US mobile broadband.

The report firstly interrogates current and future drivers for mobile broadband take-up and revenue streams - such as around smartphones, smartbooks, netbooks, video, mobile banking and payments, social networking, applications,, 4G roll out, 'ultra thins', chips, operating systems and changing consumer behavior. It then provides extensive forecasts up to 2015 for the smartphone, smartbook and netbook/sub-notebook markets, device ownership, content usage (including video and mobile banking and payments), traffic across each device and by traffic type, and revenues and ARPU for each mobile carrier.

The following are a small selection of the 2009-2015 forecasts made in this report:

Content:

  •  Mobile broadband traffic will rocket to 724TB per month in 2015.
  •  74m Americans will access video via mobile phones in 2015, up from 15m on 2009. 24m Americans will access video via notebooks and netbooks.
  •  Video traffic will be responsible for the majority of traffic growth, and will form nearly two thirds (63%) of mobile broadband traffic by 2015. This will be mainly short form content, around comedy, music, news clips, and viral videos
  •  78m Americans will access mobile banking via their phones in 2015
  •  Audio traffic will reach 90TB per month in 2015

    3G/4G phones:

  •  Mobile broadband phone penetration will rise to reach 244m in 2015, up from 37% in 2009 - a CAGR of 18%.
  •  Smartphone penetration will reach 51% of mobile phones in use by 2015
  •  Two thirds of mobile broadband phone owners will regularly access the internet via these devices by 2015, a CAGR of 26%.
  •  Mobile phones will take up two thirds of mobile broadband traffic by 2015, up from its current 49%, reflecting the centering of mobile broadband upon phones

    Netbooks:

  •  Netbook ownership continues to rise, and will be at around 12m at the end of 2009.
  •  Netbook ownership will rise by a CAGR of 33% to reach 58m in 2015, although only around half of owners will access the internet as least weekly.
  •  Netbook traffic will rise by a CAGR of 96% between 2009 and 2015. Of netbook traffic, video will rise at a CAGR of 120%, to reach 41TB per month in 2015

    Smartbooks:

  •  User behavior clearly shows that there is no appetite for smaller versions of the netbook type form factor. We see that smartbooks will come to fall within the smartphone category, and will necessarily have voice communication

    Revenues:

  •  Mobile data revenues will be welcome amid stagnating voice revenues. Whilst voice revenues will decline at a CAGR of -1%, revenue from mobile data will increase at a CAGR of 15% over 2009. Two thirds of this will come from mobile broadband
  •  ARPU: Thanks to mobile broadband, data ARPU will increase by a CAGR of 14% between 2009 and 2015.
  •  Carrier revenues: We forecast that of all carriers, Verizon will continue to gain highest revenues from data, and these revenues will rise at a CAGR of 18%. T-Mobile will continue to fetch lowest data revenues, although these will rise by a CAGR of 14%
  •  Carrier ARPUs: Although achieving lower overall data revenues than AT&T and Verizon, Sprint will continue to gain highest data ARPU

    Commenting on the research, Steve Smith, founder of Coda Research Consultancy said, "Clearly, no single device is going to win out. We are looking at an eco-system of devices that people will use according to where they are, who they are with, what they want to do, and device factors such as around screen size. This also means that device manufacturers and operators will have to provide a range of connectivity means. People tend to think that inbuilt modems are the way forward. Certainly we shall see a rise in these, but there will be a great many people who will want to move broadband dongles from one device to another.

    "A challenge for carriers and content providers is that only half of people with internet enabled phones actually use them to access the internet. The potential is there, but organizations need to move people from ownership into integrating their devices into their everyday lives. Consumers need to see and understand the value of mobile broadband.

    "Smartphones are significant drivers of course, and smartbooks have recently gained some headlines. However, look at people's behavior and you will see little appetite for even smaller netbook type form factors. Rather, we see smartbooks as becoming a sub-category of smartphones. Voice communication is essential.

    "Video is going to be significant, despite all the caveats. Also, mobile video users tend to be a very unique audience. Short form content will form the majority of usage in the immediate future, and mobile broadband video will clearly centre upon phones because they are tied to the person. We will see long form content becoming popular, but not until at least 2012. And video is going to put even more pressure on networks, with customer dissatisfaction rising. LTE will of course help to meet demands, and drive mobile broadband device and service take up.

    "Along with video, social networking and location based services are the real 'killer-apps'. Not only will these be drivers to take-up, they have great potential as revenue streams but need to be used very creatively to gain brand and service awareness for businesses.

    "Mobile banking and mobile payments will work only when consumers see their benefits. Micro-payments will be significant, and smartphones will help drive take-up. More trials like the current Starbucks trials need to take place. Mobile payments will also provide a new revenue channel for brands, such as through coupons. There is a willingness to receive marketing as long as long as consumers feel they benefit."

    The report US Mobile Broadband: Behavior, content and forecasts, 2009-2015 forms part of Coda Research Consultancy's 2009 'Mobilities' project. This report presents 57 pages of revenue, user and traffic forecasts and commentary up to and including 2015.
     
    The report is essential reading for content and rights' owners, device and component vendors, mobile carriers, service providers, developers, consultants and financial analysts, and anyone else with an interest in the future of mobile broadband in the US.

    What this report will give readers:

  •  Extensive commentary and data on factors that will drive mobile broadband take-up in the US over the next six years
  •  Insight into the types of content mobile broadband users want, and services they are willing to receive (e.g. mobile banking, mobile payments, video, location based messages, audio, marketing)
  •  Mobile broadband user forecasts by device type (netbooks, notebooks, 3G/3G+ phones, smartphones)
  •  Traffic forecasts for each device, by traffic type
  •  Video usage forecasts across devices
  •  Mobile banking and mobile payment user forecasts
  •  Voice and data service revenue forecasts
  •  Internet traffic vs SMS data service revenue forecasts
  •  Data revenue forecasts by carrier (Sprint, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile)
  •  Data ARPU forecasts by carrier (Sprint, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile)
  •  Implications of these factors for operators, vendors, rights holders and content owners
     
    To find out more about this report and its costs, and to read further highlights, visit www.codarc.co.uk, or email steve.smith@codarc.co.uk.

    -----ENDS-----

    -----NOTES FOR EDITORS-----

    Coda Research Consultancy specializes in understanding roles and impacts of new technologies, services and media upon people, organizations and businesses. It does this with a view to informing organizations' strategies around products, services, content, branding, and marketing and communications.

    Coda Research is directed by Dr Steven Smith, an acknowledged research specialist with more than ten years experience in successfully undertaking strategic projects for media, technology and academic institutions.

    To find out more about Coda Research, visit www.codarc.co.uk, or email steve.smith@codarc.co.uk.

    -----CONTACT-----

    Dr Steven Smith
    Senior Director
    Coda Research Consultancy Ltd
    25 Ludlow Road
    Guildford
    Surrey
    GU2 7NR
    England

    Tags: HIGHTECH,TELECOMM,TVRADIO1,INTERNET,COMPUELE,MEDIA001,BUSINESS

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