Published: September 22, 2009
TrueCar Forecasts September 2009 Auto Sales: Domestic Market Share at Historic Low
Luxury Brands Thrive; Sales Are Back to Pre-Cash for Clunkers' Levels

TrueCar (www.truecar.com), the authority on
new car pricing, reported today that September 2009 light vehicle sales in
U.S. will be 899,374 units, down 7% from September 2008 and down 29% from
the Cash-for-Clunkers fueled August 2009. September forecast translates
into a SAAR level of 11.1 million units. Domestic manufacturer's market
share will be a record low 40.2%.
"We have a good news and bad news scenario in September," said Jesse
Toprak, Vice President of Industry Trends at TrueCar. "As expected, new
vehicle sales are down dramatically from August, but the declines will not
be as bad as it looked at the beginning of the month. Fundamental
macroeconomic forces that fuel car sales have shown relative improvement
within the last several weeks, although we are still a long way from a full
recovery."
"Volatility in consumer demand, production and pricing will continue to
create a wild ride in the next several months until we reach a new
equilibrium in the marketplace," said Scott Painter, CEO of TrueCar. "It's
more critical than ever for automakers, dealers as well as the consumers to
have access to the most current, accurate, and transparent market
intelligence -- which defines our core mission at TrueCar."
TrueCar offers a comprehensive forecast that also goes deeper into the
numbers, looking at unit sales and market share by manufacturer, but also
shows market share by origin and sales down to the brand level.
Forecasts for the top six major manufacturers for September:
Unit Sales Forecast
September 2009 Change vs. Change vs.
Manufacturer Forecast August 2009 Sept 2008
------------ -------------- ----------- ---------
Chrysler 63,655 -31% -41%
Ford 128,056 -26% 12%
GM 169,860 -31% -40%
Honda 109,591 -32% 13%
Nissan 75,741 -28% 27%
Toyota 161,963 -28% 12%
Market Share Forecast
Manufacturer September 2009 Forecast August 2009 September 2008
------------ ----------------------- ----------- --------------
Chrysler 7.1% 7.4% 11.1%
Ford 14.2% 13.8% 11.9%
GM 18.9% 19.5% 29.2%
Honda 12.2% 12.8% 10.0%
Nissan 8.4% 8.4% 6.2%
Toyota 18.0% 17.9% 15.0%
Market share forecasts for the origin of the manufacturer for September:
Manufacturer September 2009 Forecast August 2009 September 2008
------------ ----------------------- ----------- --------------
Europe 9.1% 6.9% 7.8%
Japan 43.9% 44.4% 35.6%
South Korea 6.8% 8.0% 4.4%
USA 40.2% 40.7% 52.2%
TrueCar also projects sales down to the brand level:
September 2009 Market Share Change vs. Change vs.
Brand Forecast Forecast August 2009 Sept 2008
----- -------------- ------------ ----------- ---------
Acura 9,486 1.1% -1% -5%
Audi 8,846 1.0% 10% 17%
BMW 18,231 2.0% -5% 24%
Buick 8,370 0.9% -3% -41%
Cadillac 8,793 1.0% 27% -29%
Chevrolet 114,126 12.7% -32% -34%
Chrysler 11,126 1.2% -40% -52%
Dodge 34,526 3.8% -34% -45%
Ford 114,204 12.7% -28% 14%
GMC 21,465 2.4% -5% -44%
Honda 100,105 11.1% -34% 16%
HUMMER 752 0.1% -3% -67%
Hyundai 36,128 4.0% -40% 46%
Infiniti 7,849 0.9% 2% 1%
Jaguar 993 0.1% 14% -10%
Jeep 18,003 2.0% -18% -16%
Kia 24,738 2.8% -38% 42%
Land Rover 2,618 0.3% 15% 0%
Lexus 23,942 2.7% 5% 49%
Lincoln 7,424 0.8% 26% -2%
Mazda 17,248 1.9% -35% 7%
Mercedes-Benz 18,892 2.1% 10% 1%
Mercury 6,428 0.7% -32% -1%
MINI 3,849 0.4% -25% 2%
Mitsubishi 4,595 0.5% -33% -38%
Nissan 67,892 7.5% -30% 31%
Pontiac 11,892 1.3% -60% -49%
Porsche 1,892 0.2% 24% 30%
Saab 435 0.0% -10% -75%
Saturn 4,462 0.5% -47% -76%
Scion 5,592 0.6% -48% -31%
smart 1,192 0.1% -27% -33%
Subaru 22,865 2.5% -20% 58%
Suzuki 3,009 0.3% -48% -26%
Toyota 132,429 14.7% -31% 10%
Volkswagen 20,690 2.3% -17% 21%
Volvo 4,286 0.5% -26% 6%
Industry Total 899,374 -29% -7%
TrueCar bases its forecast on actual transaction data that cover about 30%
of all sales in the U.S. The transaction data based forecast is refined by
other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales including:
sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major
stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI).
TrueCar does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage
change calculations.
About TrueCar
TrueCar (www.truecar.com) is the authority in new car pricing. TrueCar
aggregates data from multiple sources to show car buyers and dealers how
much people actually paid for a particular car in their geographic area.
TrueCar is offered online, free of charge -- so anyone can know at any time
what is considered a good or great price. Consumers no longer need to walk
into the dealership only partially informed and fully suspicious: with
TrueCar they can walk in knowing the price of a fair deal. Dealers also
benefit by gaining real-time, unbiased information about marketplace
pricing, helping them price their cars to increase volume of sales and gain
market share from other dealers. Led by a highly experienced team from the
automotive and technology industries, TrueCar is based in Santa Monica,
California.
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