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Power in The Pipelines

By Rebeka Gluhbegovic

The recently planned gas pipeline and deals involving Turkey have signalled a potential power reconfiguration in the region. If it plays its cards correctly, Turkey may increase its regional influence as well as its position with Europe.

It all begins with energy, Russia and Europe. Russia is the main gas supplier to Europe, and used a pipeline that ran from the Ukraine to Europe. Late last year and early this year, however, due to political discord between the Ukraine and Russia, the supply was halted and much of Eastern Europe suffered from a gas shortage during the cold winter. A new transit route was needed to ensure a steady and reliable supply of gas: through Turkey. Turkey and Russia reached agreement in August 2009, and the South Stream project is expected to begin construction of the pipeline in 2010. The pipeline will carry gas from Russia, through the Black Sea (including Turkish territorial waters), through Bulgaria and into Europe.

Turkey will therefore be the main non-EU country to transit gas into Europe. This is the link that Turkey can use as leverage in its dealings with the EU. Turkey, in turn, would have to remain on favourable terms with Russia so as to avoid ending up in the same situation as the Ukraine. Turkey, however, has an advantage over the Ukraine in the form of the Nabucco pipeline. This gas pipeline will transport gas from the Caspian Sea region, through Turkey and into Europe. Russia is not involved in this project, thus diversifying Europe's gas sources whilst retaining Turkey's strategic importance in the gas lines, allowing Turkey to avoid becoming a pawn in East vs. West politics. The Nabucco pipeline is, however, uncertain as securing gas through the project is dependant upon the commitment of the supplying countries -notably that of Azerbaijan.

The resource distribution and routes highlight Europe's hunger for gas. Russia, Azerbaijan and other gas producers in the region are eager to feed that hunger for profit. Turkey is the current middleman, with the potential to use its new stature to bolster its benefits.

A factor that Turkey will keep in mind when considering its strategic position is its desire for EU membership. Turkey wants EU membership for economic benefit, for the stature of being an EU country and because closer ties to the West would also provide reassurance to the secular Turks who fear Islamism penetrating into Turkish society and the political system. It hopes that by providing Europe's gas needs, its negotiating position will be more favourable. While this will be undoubtedly true, the EU will not grant membership to Turkey.

Its main stated reasons are the human rights abuses committed by Turkey, especially with regard to the Kurdish question, and the lagging economy. The fact that Turkey has a population of almost 77 million people and that it is a predominantly Muslim country are underplayed but significant factors. An influx of Turkish migrants into Europe would add to their existing immigration and integration concerns, and to the general unease of what constitutes European identity.

However, Turkey can erode the two publicised negative factors barring their EU membership. The pipelines will provide economic growth and employment opportunities if utilised correctly. Turkey should be able to mobilize this into a general economic stimulus.

Northern Iraq is inhabited by Kurds, as is Turkey's south-eastern region. Due to the Turkish authorities' poor treatment of Kurds, relations are strained and the Kurds have formed rebel movements with autonomous aspirations. The Iraqi government is unwilling to co-operate with Turkey regarding the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The attitude of the Iraqi government was summed up in Iraqi President Jalal Talabani's remark that not even a Kurdish cat would be expelled. Therefore, Turkey should ameliorate its treatment of the Kurds. Progress has already been made with Prime Minister Erdogan meeting with the leader of the main Kurdish party on policy issues with regards to Kurds and their rights. Turkey must vigorously pursue attempts at reconciling with its Kurdish population in order to mitigate its relationship with Iraq.

Northern Iraq has a bountiful supply of oil and gas that it wants to export. Turkey provides the best transit route to the EU market. The gas can serve as a practical bridge between the two. The Iraqi Prime minister, Nouri Al-Maliki, stated that Iraq is willing to export gas to Europe. It is unclear whether that would be through Nabucco. Such a relationship would contribute to economic growth and stability in the region. For Turkey, it is especially important to start building a favourable relationship with the Kurds in northern Iraq as the hovering US troop withdrawal from Iraq may mean a release on Kurdish autonomy aspirations. The gas deal could mute this aspiration in the cause of economic interests and contribute to higher regional stability.

These are the opportunities presented by the gas pipeline deals. Turkey could enhance its regional influence - especially if it takes this opportunity while Iran is preoccupied with its internal political turmoil - and better its relationship with the EU. But only if it takes the correct steps, and takes them fast.

i The views reflected in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of IIIS.

International Institute of Islamic Studies Occasional Paper.

The International Institute of Islamic Studies (IIIS) aims to provide insight and solutions to issues associated with the Islamic world. [ facebook ]