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The Conference Board(R) Japan Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

NEW YORK, April 7 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) forJapan decreased 5.4 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) decreased 1.9 percent in February.

    --  The Conference Board LEI for Japan fell substantially again in February,
        and there were large downward revisions to the previous five months as
        actual data for operating profits for the fourth quarter of 2008 became
        available. The index of overtime worked and six-month growth rate of
        labor productivity continued to make large negative contributions to the
        index this month. With February's decline, the leading economic
        index has fallen by 25.3 percent (about a -44.2 percent annual rate)
        from August 2008 to February 2009, the largest six-month decline in its
        44-year history. Moreover, the weaknesses among the leading indicators
        continued to be very widespread.

    --  The Conference Board CEI for Japan also declined sharply in February,
        and all of its components decreased this month. Industrial production
        has fallen at a record pace for three consecutive months, and it is now
        30 percent below its January 2008 level. The six-month growth rate of
        the index fell to -7.9 percent (a -15.1 percent annual rate), the lowest
        since the index began in 1965. In addition, the weaknesses among the
        coincident indicators continued to be very widespread in the last six
        months. At the same time, real GDP contracted at a 12.1 percent annual
        rate in the fourth quarter of 2008, the largest drop in 35 years.  The
        growth rate of real GDP averaged -4.2 percent (annual rate) in 2008.

    --  The widespread declines in The Conference Board LEI and The Conference
        Board CEI for Japan have been persistent for more than a year now, and
        the rate at which they are falling continued to accelerate through
        February. Taken together, the behavior of both indexes suggests that the
        current contraction in economic activity is likely to continue during
        the first half of 2009 and may remain deep in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the ten components that make up The Conference Board LEI forJapan increased in February. The positive contributors to the index - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - include the new orders for machinery and construction component*, the (inverted) business failures, real money supply, and the interest rate spread. The negative contributors - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - include real operating profits*, the index of overtime worked, the six-month growth rate of labor productivity, the Tankan business conditions survey, dwelling units started, and stock prices.

With the decrease of 5.4 percent in February, The Conference Board LEI forJapan now stands at 71.5 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 6.4 percent in January and decreased 5.8 percent in December. During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 25.3 percent, and two of the ten components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. All four components that make up The Conference Board CEI forJapan decreased in February. The negative contributors to the index - in order from the largest negative contributor to the smallest - include industrial production, the retail, wholesale, and manufacturing sales* component, number of employed persons, and wage and salary income.

With the decrease of 1.9 percent in February, The Conference Board CEI forJapan now stands at 93.9 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 1.6 percent in both January and December. During the six-month span through February, the index decreased 7.9 percent, and one of the four components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY AND NOTES. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(TM) (LEI) forJapan and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(TM) (CEI) forJapan reported in this release are those available "as of" 5:00 P.M. ET April 3, 2009. Some series are estimated as noted below.

* The series in The Conference Board LEI that are based on our estimates are real operating profits and new orders for machinery. The series in The Conference Board CEI that is based on our estimates is real manufacturing sales.

                    Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

                                  2008              2009      6-month
                                   Dec      Jan      Feb     Aug to Feb
    Leading Economic index (LEI)  80.8 p   75.6 p   71.5 p
      Percent Change              -5.8 p   -6.4 p   -5.4 p    -25.3 p
      Diffusion                   30.0     30.0     35.0       25.0

    Coincident Economic
     Index (CEI)                  97.3 p   95.7 p   93.9 p
      Percent Change              -1.6 p   -1.6 p   -1.9 p     -7.9 p
      Diffusion                   25.0     25.0      0.0       25.0

    n.a. Not available  p Preliminary  r Revised
    Indexes equal 100 in 2004
    Source: The Conference Board  All Rights Reserved

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/

The next release is scheduled for Friday, May 8, 2009 at 10:00 A.M. (JST)

In the U.S. - Thursday, May 7, 2009 at 9:00 P.M. (ET)

SOURCE The Conference Board