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Al-Bashir Indictment Watershed for Darfur Conflict

By The Media Line news agency

The indictment by the International Criminal Court against Sudanese President 'Umar Al-Bashir on Wednesday marks a pivotal point in the conflict in Darfur, and in Sudan's relations with the Western world.

Ever since the ICC's prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo talked about a possible indictment against the president last July, Khartoum has been bracing for increased violence and possible international isolation.

Security has been bolstered throughout the country, especially around embassies, and security forces are anticipating mass protests in light of the ICC's arrest warrant, with larger rallies expected later this week.

Local residents have been stocking up on foodstuffs and there are fears that the indictment will throw the country into security chaos, and exacerbate an already fragile security situation.

The African Union and the Arab League have condemned the notion of indicting the president on the grounds that it will quash any peace efforts between Khartoum and Darfur rebels. Both have been trying to persuade the ICC to either stop procedures against the president or postpone them for a year.

The indictment is the first ICC arrest warrant against an incumbent head of state.

The international community is not overlooking the significance of the arrest warrant.

There are fears that Sudanese will vent their anger on the thousands of foreigners residing in the country, including foreign peacekeepers. It could also impact United Nations teams on the ground in Sudan, who provided aid and shelter to thousands of Darfur residents.

Reports from Khartoum suggest that as many as 37 African nations will terminate their membership of the ICC as a result of the arrest warrant being issued.

Al-Bashir is being charged with war crimes and crimes against humanity in Darfur. The charge of genocide was not included in the warrant.

It is important to note that Darfur is not the only conflict area in Sudan.

A civil war raged in the country between north and south for 22 years before the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed in 2005. Recent clashes centered in oil-rich areas have highlighted the fragility of this agreement and there are concerns an arrest warrant will reignite this conflict.

Unlike other conflicts in Africa, often overlooked by the international community, tension in Sudan is of great interest to the world because of the vast quantities of oil reserves in the country.

Oil is the main source of income for the Sudanese government and the primary drive of Sudan's economic growth.

But the industry is poorly managed, highly politicized and is often the source of division rather than stability.

Most countries have been reluctant to tap into Sudan's vast oil potential, so as not to be associated with Khartoum's poor human-rights record, and also because of the security instability there.

The exception is China, which has huge investments in Sudan and has obstructed international efforts to impose economic sanctions and an arms embargo on Khartoum.

The conflict in Darfur began in early 2003 when local rebel groups rose up against the central government in Khartoum, protesting against decades of discrimination. The government has been accused of unleashing aggressive armed groups called the Janjaweed to counter the rebels.

According to international estimates, more than 200,000 people have been killed and 2.2 million displaced in what some governments are calling genocide.

The Sudanese government is downplaying the death toll of the Darfur conflict, and says it is closer to 10,000.

(c) 2008. The Media Line Ltd. All Rights Reserved.