Is Lebanon the Next Front?

By The Media Line news agency

Lebanese President Michel Suleiman expressed concern that Israel was responsible for eight missiles recently found deployed in southern Lebanon in order to implicate Lebanon and drag it into a conflict.

Suleiman is meeting with French president Nicolas Sarkozy in Beirut on Tuesday to discuss the situation in Gaza.

Sa'ad Al-Hariri, who heads the majority bloc in the Lebanese parliament, dismissed speculation that Hizbullah would open a new front by launching missiles onto Israel to protest the offensive in Gaza.

Israel is concerned Hizbullah will exploit the army's focus on the south and try to attack Israel's northern border.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak has said that Israel is keeping a watchful eye on the northern border.

Al-Hariri said the consequences of engaging in war with Israel are known to Lebanon's political parties.

"I'm sure Hizbullah will make no bad mistake this time," he said, according to AFP.

Prof. Eugene Sensenig-Dabbous, a political scientist from Notre Dame University in Beirut, said he did not believe Hizbullah would wage war on Israel, even though Israel was preoccupied in the south.

"Hizbullah always chooses its own fights. They'd never allow Israel or the Palestinians to drag them into a conflict they don't want," Sensenig-Dabbous told The Media Line.

"The strategy of the Israelis in Lebanon, in my opinon, is being refined. Hizbullah is interested in observing what the Israelis are doing in Gaza because it wants to see how the [Israeli army] is performing. Both sides, Hizbullah and the Israel Defense Forces are studying strategies and tactics for when the war starts again in Lebanon, and I'm sure it will."

Politically, Hizbullah has a lot to lose from engaging in a conflict with Israel. Hizbullah is expected to make gains in upcoming elections.


"I don't see what purpose a war with Israel would serve for them, when they can expand their power base in Lebanon using democratic means," Sensenig-Dabbous said.

Israel and Hizbullah were engaged in a 34-day conflict in the summer of 2006, sparked by a cross border raid of Hizbullah on an Israeli army convoy and the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers.

Palestinian refugees residing in Lebanon are viewing the situation in Gaza with concern, but say the situation will not drive them to take up arms against Israel or the Lebanese army.

Palestinian refugees in Lebanon can do precious little to help Gazans, 'Ali Hweidi, secretary general of the Thabit Organization for the Right of Return told The Media Line.

Thabit is a non-governmental organization acting on behalf of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.

"[Palestinians in Lebanon] can only carry weapons inside camps and they are prevented from doing anything against Israel or helping the Palestinians in Gaza," Hweidi said.

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