Published:
Fall Retail Sales to Get Boost From Weather According to Storm Exchange Retail Outlook for October - December 2008
Favorable 'Sweater Weather' in Key US Cities Projected to Add Up to 125 Basis Points to October Same Store Sales; Outlook Is Less Optimistic for Holiday Season

Storm
Exchange, Inc., a market leader in weather risk management services,
today released its Retail
Weather Risk Outlook for October to December 2008. Based on a
combination of atmospheric climate trends, advanced computer-driven
seasonal prediction models and analog forecasts, the Storm Exchange outlook
projects that cooler October weather in key US cities will add between 50
and 125 basis points to aggregate same store sales growth.
Citing a 90% probability of cooler year-over-year temperatures in the
Midwest and Northeast this October, the Storm Exchange Retail Weather Risk
Outlook suggests that the increased need for fall merchandise will drive
incremental same store sales increases in spite
of the current macroeconomic environment. Storm Exchange analysis of the
historical
correlation between temperature and retail sales has found that for
every 1 degree (F) change in temperature in October, same store sales
(excluding mass merchandisers) increase/decrease by approximately 17 basis
points.
"Cold temperatures are a critical driver of consumer shopping behavior in
September and October," said Paul Walsh, Storm
Exchange Chief Strategy Officer. "Early in the fall, consumers tend to
think less about the economy and more about personal comfort when they
start seeing their breath. October sales should reflect that, particularly
if savvy retailers seize the opportunity to target their promotional
efforts around this prime 'sweater weather' shopping season."
This favorable relationship between cooler temperatures and increased
consumer spending is likely to wane in November and December, as buying
impulse gives way to economic reality. According to the Storm Exchange
Retail Outlook, the relationship between weather and total retail sales in
November and December is much weaker than that in October. Storm Exchange
cautions that a combination of overbuying in October, the impact of the
faltering economy and more neutral November weather may lead to weaker
retail performance in the key holiday shopping months.
Storm Exchange produces their seasonal Weather Risk Outlooks to provide
businesses with statistical probabilities of adverse weather conditions on
a regional basis.
The Storm Exchange Retail Weather
Risk Outlook for October to December 2008 breaks out projected retail
sales estimates on an aggregate and city-by-city basis. The city-level
analysis is based upon intelligence produced by the company's new weekly
regional planner which allows retailers and investors to anticipate weekly
trend changes in temperature to target marketing and investment decisions.
About Storm Exchange, Inc.
Storm Exchange provides
weather-related financial and information services in the language that
corporations and investors understand best: the bottom line.
Storm Exchange helps corporations improve performance by enabling them to
identify, measure, manage and hedge the impact of weather on income and
expenses. For investors, traders and insurers, the company delivers
information solutions that enable them to understand and anticipate how
weather impacts investment and underwriting performance.
Storm Exchange solutions focus on the business context and financial
relevance behind the weather. Services include media, industry-specific
intelligence, correlation models, proprietary analytics, forecasting tools,
and weather hedge solutions. These services, many of which are available on
leading information platforms such as Bloomberg, address the fundamental
drivers of financial performance that result from exposures to
precipitation, wind, temperature and other climate variables.
Storm Exchange is headquartered in New York and operates a weather research
center in State College, PA. The company is backed by leading private
equity investors Venrock Associates and RRE Ventures.
Copyright © 2008, MarketWire
Copyright © 2008, NewsBlaze,
Daily News
Tags: ,Lifestyle and Leisure:Family, LifestyleandLeisure:Fashion, ProfessionalServices:Consulting, Retail:Apparel, Retail:ConsumerInterest, ,NY,NEW YORK, NY
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