You Can Bet the Office Pool Will Make You Unhappy

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Professor Stephen Nowlis and Associate Professor Naomi Mandel of Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business found conclusive evidence that office pools cause emotional uncertainty and discomfort, regardless of whether you win or lose. Their study is published in this month's "Journal of Consumer Research."

"Intuitively, you would think you'd enjoy events like this more if you bet on them, but we found you enjoy them less," said Mandel, whose marketing research frequently focuses on consumer behavior and self-esteem.

She and Nowlis repeatedly found that making predictions -- having something to win or lose -- actually made the viewing experience unpleasant. Therefore, even though "prediction" Web sites and office pools are rampant, that doesn't mean they're good for you.

"Nobody likes to be wrong, so when they make predictions, they have this little sliver of doubt that causes mixed emotions," said Nowlis. "For example, 'Survivor' is 16 weeks long. Every week you get some feedback about whether you were right or wrong in your predictions, and you want to be correct for 16 weeks."

Office pool participants experience something called "anticipated regret," which may be worse than the experience of actually losing the pool. Nowlis and Mandel found this in several tests.

For example, they asked 91 undergraduates to watch a clip from the reality show "The Weakest Link" and asked some of the students to predict the winner after watching just the first show segment. The students who were forced to make a prediction demonstrated a much lower level of enjoyment than those who just watched the show.

W. P. Carey School of Business

The W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University is one of the top-ranked and largest business schools inthe United States. Distinguished faculty members include a Nobel Prize winner and a Fulbright Senior Specialist. The school is internationally regarded for its research productivity and its programs in supply chain management and services marketing. For more information please visit wpcarey.asu.edu and http://knowledge.wpcarey.asu.edu/.

SOURCE W. P. Carey School of Business

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