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Oregon's Wu Wins Renomination for Congressional Race

By Steve Holgate

The Oregon primary election, which determines each party's nominees for the November general election, is over. Campaign offices have closed (temporarily, for victors), the lawn signs have been pulled up, and ads have disappeared from the radio and television.

With Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton crisscrossing the state for support in the ongoing battle for the Democratic presidential nomination, the May 20 Oregon primary drew national attention, an unusual circumstance because the state's nominating contest comes late in the electoral season. Oregonians seemed to enjoy their moment in the spotlight.

A hard-fought U. S. Senate primary also helped motivate Democratic voters. The race featured two candidates whose policies were as similar as their personal styles were different. Steve Novick, a sometimes-brash party activist, ran a self-styled insurgent campaign highlighted by a series of television ads that played off his physical disabilities with pointed humor. (The popular ads can still be found on YouTube.)

The early favorite in the race, Jeff Merkley, speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives and choice of most party leaders, ran a more traditional campaign, touting his record and characterizing Novick as intemperate. (See "Senate Race Is Heating Up in Oregon ( http://www.america.gov/st/elections08-english/2008/March/20080317191838abretnuh0.3042871.html ).")

For months, it seemed Novick's outspoken style might carry him to a big upset. He led almost all of the early opinion polls and still held a slight lead one week before the primary, although the number of undecided voters remained remarkably high. In the end, Merkely's more traditional approach prevailed and he achieved a narrow victory that pits him against Republican incumbent Gordon Smith in what promises to be an expensive and contentious race.

CONGRESSIONAL RACE HIGHLIGHTS INCUMBANT'S STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES

In the race to represent Oregon's 1st Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, things went pretty much as expected, at least on the surface. Congressman David Wu will be the Democratic nominee in the fall, running for his sixth term. The Republican candidate will be Joel Haugen, an educator and small-business owner.

The winning margins for both were impressive: Wu received 78 percent of the Democratic vote and Haugen 69 percent of the Republican.

Haugen dominated the Republican returns nearly as strongly as Wu did the Democrats, which suggests Wu could face a tough challenge in November in a district with nearly equal numbers of registered Republicans and Democrats. Haugen is the type of moderate Republican that political analysts have said could successfully challenge Wu.

Could Republicans really be headed for victory in the Oregon 1st? Probably not: Nearly three times as many voters turned out for the Democratic primary as for the Republican primary. In Oregon, as in most states, citizens may vote only in the primary election for the party with which they are registered.

Democratic turnout likely was high because the Democratic presidential race remained very close, while the Republican nomination has been won mathematically by Senator John McCain. Democrats had more reason to vote in the primary and likely will remain strongly motivated for the fall general election, something else that bodes very poorly for Haugen.

The district has been tilting more heavily Democratic in recent years. The excitement generated by the Democratic presidential race and mounting problems for the Republican Party in Oregon have led to a substantial increase in the number of Democratic voters.

In addition, Wu's campaign is likely to be far better financed than Haugen's, and Wu is far more familiar to voters in the district.

The news for Wu, however, was not uniformly good. His 78 percent share of the Democratic vote is impressive, but lower than that received by any other Democratic incumbent in the state. The fact that Will Hobbs, an underfinanced political neophyte was able to get 16 percent of the vote and endorsements from two of the district's leading newspapers indicates an undercurrent of dissatisfaction with Wu. (See "Oregon Congressional Incumbent Faces Challenge Within His Party ( http://www.america.gov/st/elections08-english/2008/May/20080508130516abretnuh0.9387628.html?CP.rss=true ).")

Jim Moore, a professor of political science at Pacific University in Forest Grove, Oregon, warns against reading too much into this. "There's little significance there. The people who voted for the other [Democratic] candidates were definitely voicing a protest against David Wu - but, as the numbers show, it's not a very big protest." At this point, he says, voters "are casting a vote against the incumbent, and they are simply using [his opponents'] name to do that."

In other words, Democratic voter dissatisfaction with Wu is unlikely to cost him the 2008 election, but the numbers suggest soft support that could make him vulnerable in a future election. Leading Democrats, while reluctant to criticize a member of their own party publicly, have expressed unhappiness with Wu's performance.

But, at least for this year, things look good for the incumbent Democrat.

Source: U.S. Department of State