2008 Electoral Vote Preliminary Preview

By William Arnone

My previous analysis looked at the states that are likely to be solidly Republican, those that are likely to be solidly Democratic, and those that are likely to be up for grabs in November. (If you wish to receive a copy, please send an email back to me with "Electoral Preview" in the Subject line.)

The following is an update, which includes the results thus far of the Democratic primaries and caucuses, for the purpose of assessing which of the two remaining Democratic Presidential candidates - Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama - has the better chance of winning in November. As noted previously, while the results of primary/caucus votes - especially those that are closed to Independents and Republicans - may not indicate how a particular state will vote in a general election, they do give some indication of the relative strength of each Democratic Presidential candidate vis-à-vis each other as the potential nominee.

The key to capturing the Presidency in 2008 will be winning enough of the 17 states with a total of 190 electoral votes that might go either way. Of these 17 battleground states, 11 with a total of 114 electoral votes have been more likely to vote Republican in recent Presidential elections. Of the remaining battleground states, 6 with a total of 76 electoral votes have been more likely to vote Democratic.

Of the 19 states whose primaries/caucuses Senator Clinton has won, 4 are likely to be solidly Republican in November, 5 are likely to be solidly Democratic, and 10 are likely to be up for grabs. Of the 28 states whose primaries/caucuses Senator Obama has won, 12 are likely to be solidly Republican in November, 9 are likely to be solidly Democratic, and 7 are likely to be up for grabs.

Of the 10 battleground states whose primaries/caucuses Sen. Clinton has won, her average margin of victory has been 15.4 percentage points. Excluding Florida and Michigan, in the 8 other battleground states whose primaries/caucuses Sen. Clinton has won, her average margin of victory has been 15.9 percentage points. Of the 7 battleground states whose primaries/caucuses Sen. Obama has won, his average margin of victory has been 17.7 percentage points.

Assuming that (a) neither Sen. Clinton nor Sen. Obama will win those 19 states with 152 electoral votes that are likely to go Republican in November and (b) either Sen. Clinton or Obama will win those 15 states with 196 electoral votes that are likely to go Democratic in November, then based on the results of Democratic primaries/caucuses in the battleground states, Sen. Clinton is more likely to win 10 battleground states with 121 electoral votes for a total of 317 electoral votes. Sen. Obama is more likely to win 7 battleground states with 69 electoral votes for a total of 265 electoral votes.

Florida's and Michigan's primary votes, however, are not currently recognized by the Democratic National Committee. Excluding these two states' 44 electoral votes, which would put both in the Republican column in November, Sen. Clinton's projected electoral vote total in November would be 273.

To win the Presidency, at least 270 electoral votes are needed.

Based on the above, Sen. Clinton stands the better chance of winning the general election in November as the Democratic Presidential nominee.

Of the remaining states that have yet to hold primaries/caucuses, three (Kentucky, Montana, and South Dakota) are likely to be solidly Republican in November, and one (Oregon) is likely to be solidly Democratic. (This analysis does not include Puerto Rico - June 3 primary with 55 pledged delegates at stake - as it has no electoral votes in the general election.)

As always, I welcome your questions or comments.

-William Arnone
william.arnone@ey.com

judythpiazza@newsblaze.com

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