Polls Show Texas Senate Race Extremely Close

By Michael W. Drudge

The American Southwest will be the site of a hotly contested Senate election this November, with incumbent Republican John Cornyn facing Democratic state legislator Rick Noriega in Texas.

Recent polls indicate that if the election were held today, it would be a statistical tie.

A Rasmussen Reports telephone poll of 500 likely voters gave Cornyn a lead of just four percentage points - 47 percent support to 43 percent for Noriega. The poll's margin of error was 4 percent. A separate survey of 600 Texan voters by the Democratic-leaning Daily Kos Web site gave Cornyn a 48-to-44 percent advantage, again with a four-point margin of error.

"Two independent polls in one week show the Texas Senate race is a dead heat," said Noriega campaign manager Mark Bell. "These polls confirm what people across Texas have been telling us. Traditional Texas voters are ready for a change in the U.S. Senate."

But the Cornyn campaign is skeptical, as spokesman Kevin McLaughlin told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

"I just don't think that robo-call is real accurate," McLaughlin said. "For one thing, it shows Noriega with 84 percent name ID [identification], and he's never run statewide before." Robo-call refers to an automated telephonic survey system.

Despite the polls, Cornyn enjoys one enormous advantage over Noriega: the size of his campaign fund. At the end of March, the most recent reporting period, Cornyn had $8.7 million in cash on hand. Noriega had just less than $330,000.

Noriega said his is "an insurgent grassroots" campaign that will pick up steam with contributions over the Internet. He has hired the Internet marketing firm that helped Senator James Webb, a Democrat of Virginia, win his seat in 2006. Webb's victory over Republican incumbent George Allen was critical in shifting the Senate to Democratic control.

Money will be an important factor in campaigning in the very large state of Texas, which has 19 media markets, 32 congressional districts and more than 7 million general election voters.

The national Democratic Party is watching Noriega's fundraising effort as it considers whether to put money into his campaign.

WAR IN IRAQ A KEY ISSUE

As the scramble for contributions unfolds, the candidates are laying out their policy differences for voters to consider. Nothing divides them more than the war in Iraq.

Noriega emphasizes his military experience as a lieutenant colonel in the Texas Army National Guard who has served in Afghanistan. He even displays his combat boots at campaign stops. He opposes the war in Iraq, and wants to see what he calls a "phased military redeployment" there.

"The failure of Washington politicians like Mr. Cornyn to demand a change in direction in Iraq has let our country down, let our state down, and let our men and women in uniform down," Noriega said. "And it's cost us over $200 million a day - money that could be used for investments and middle class tax relief here in America."

Cornyn sits on the Senate Armed Services committee and has been a staunch backer of the Bush administration's Iraq war policy.

"[I]f we were to leave Iraq before the Iraqis are able to govern and defend themselves, it would increase the likelihood that Iraq would become a failed state," Cornyn said after a recent committee meeting to review Iraq policy. "This would be much like Afghanistan was following the exit of the Soviet Union in 1989, which, as we all know, gave rise to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. We saw the consequences of that breeding ground for terrorism on September 11, 2001."

The election in November will hinge on several variables. Cornyn has the advantages of incumbency and he has won statewide office four times. A Democrat last won a Senate seat in Texas in 1988.

Noriega, who is a Mexican American, could get a boost if Hispanic voters turn out in large numbers. The March Democratic primary race between Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama set a turnout record, and Noriega won a four-candidate race without having to face a runoff.

Still, the challenger faces what Jennifer Duffy of The Cook Political Report calls "an uphill climb."

"Cornyn's [poll] numbers aren't stellar," Duffy told the Austin American-Statesman. "But he will be tough to beat."

This article is part of America.gov's continuing coverage of seven of the 435 U.S. congressional districts during the 2008 campaign. Each offers a different prism though which to view U.S. politics. For more information, see U.S Elections - State and Local ( http://uspolitics.america.gov/uspolitics/elections/stateandlocal.html ).

Source: U.S. Department of State

judythpiazza@newsblaze.com