On Eve of Pennsylvania Primary Networks Souring on Democratic Contenders as Primary Battle Continues

These results are from the Center for Media and Public Affairs (CMPA) 2008 Election News Watch Project. They are based on a scientific content analysis of 933 election news stories (28 hours 29 minutes of airtime) that aired on the evening news shows on ABC, CBS, and NBC from December 16, 2007 through March 22, 2008. We report the evaluations by non-partisan sources, excluding comments by the candidates and campaigns about each other, because research shows that non-partisan sources have the most influence on public opinion, and they are also more subject to the discretion of reporters.

MAJOR FINDINGS:

Positive Comments on Obama Slip after Super Tuesday but the Wright Controversy Did Not Hurt Him.

Comments on Senator Obama aired on the three major television networks had been at a lofty 88% positive for the period from 12/16/07 to 2/5/08, but dropped to a still impressive 62% positive during the 6 week period after the Super-Tuesday primary (2/6/08 to 3/22/08.) Furthermore, Senator Obama's overall positive image remained unaffected by the Reverend Wright controversy. During that period, Obama's positive press remained at 62%.

Positive comments about Senator Clinton on the three major television networks have continued to erode; down to 48% from the 53% she enjoyed during the pre-Super Tuesday period.

                         PERCENT POSITIVE EVALUATIONS
                          ABC, NBC, CBS evening news

    PERIOD                                       OBAMA            CLINTON

    Pre-Super Tuesday        12/16 to 2/5    88% positive       53% positive


    Post-Super Tuesday       2/6 to 3/22     62% positive       48% positive


    Rev. Wright              3/13 to 3/22    62% positive       40% positive
     Controversy
     Period

What Horse Race?

Since Super Tuesday, 96% of comments about Sen. Obama's prospects for winning the Democratic nomination have been optimistic, compared to only 47% on Senator Clinton's prospects.

Examples:

"The speech spoke to the elites of America...it spoke to a completely different audience than the folks in that bowling alley." Political Strategist

"Refusing to repudiate Rev. Wright today was in many ways an act of honor for Senator Obama ... it's got to count for something." George Stephanopoulos

CMPA has monitored every presidential election since 1988 using the same methodology, in which trained coders tally all mentions of candidates and issues and all evaluations of candidates. For CMPA findings on previous elections see http://cmpa.com/studies/election08/election08.htm/.

SOURCE Center for Media and Public Affairs