Crossfire War - Israel/ Iran-Hezbollah-Syria Rush to Complete War Preparations

By Willard Payne

Crossfire War - Rapid Fire News=Tehran - Beirut - Damascus Watch - West Asia - North - Northeast Africa Theatre: Tehran - Riyadh - Tripoli - Khartoum - El Arish - Ramallah - Gaza - Damascus - Beirut/Jerusalem - Paris - Rome - London - Washington - Cairo - Amman; Syria - Hezbollah-Iran/Israel Rush to Complete Preparations for Full Scale War - Lessons of 2006 - Israel to Distribute Bio/Chemical Masks - Iran Sends Surveillance Equipment to Syria - Hezbollah May Attack Israel Through Another Group - Syria Moblizes Reserves and to Announce Investigation Findings This Weekend

Night Watch: BEIRUT - Iran-Hezbollah-Syria are competing with Israel as to who can be ready first for the most serious regional war since October 1973. Debka is reporting, due to intelligence reports Damascus may be fitting non-conventional warheads to missiles to be launched by Hezbollah, Israel's Security Cabinet has just authorized the re-distribution of bio/chemical warfare masks to the population. Jerusalem has scheduled nationwide exercises for April 6-10 to test responsiveness to emergency situations with the warning sirens to be tested April 8. The drill will be conducted by Rachel the National Emergency Authority established as a result of the 2006 war with Hezbollah-Hamas. Hezbollah seems to have decided not to conduct its revenge attack due to the mock assassination of Imad Mughniyeh Feb. 12, staged by Tehran, since that would provide Israel with its reason to not only attack Hezbollah but also Syria before Damascus is completely ready. It is now being reported Syria has positioned two armored brigades, commanded by President Bashar al-Assad's younger brother Maher Assad, Chief of the Presidential Guard, on the Beirut-Damascus highway to prevent Israeli armored columns from reaching the capital. Syria has also mobilized some of its reserves. [DEBKA]

If Israel can seriously threaten Damascus-Beirut then the only offensive Syria-Iran-Lebanon can really make are missile-rocket launchings. I suspect Tehran realizes this and will commit its expendable brigade size Rapid Deployment Force to the West Bank and attempt to reach Palestinian demonstrators at the Al Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem's Old City. For a lot of the brigade and Palestinians their reaching "freeing" the mosque will accomplish their sense of mission and it will be celebrated all over the Islamic world with spectacular publicity and end their war against Israel. The government in Tehran is an expert in using these symbolic-religious celebrations as a way of manipulating masses people and not just in the immediate area.

But it will not end Tehran's support of the Muslim Brotherhood against Egypt President Hosni Mubarak but that is another front.

Bekaa Valley - These detailed reports of Damascus' preparations and with support from Tehran have been published in the London based Al-Quds Al-Arab daily but according to the Jerusalem Post/Media Line News Agency they are being denied by a member of Syria's National Security Committee Colonel (ret.) Ahmad Munir Muhammad, declaring the report "totally false". That Damascus' posture is peaceful, therefore Syria has no need to concentrate troops near the Bekaa Valley and Hezbollah has proven they can defeat any Israeli aggression by themselves as they did two years ago. Despite these official denials reports persist Syria has deployed three armored divisions, nine infantry brigades and special forces near Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. It is also being reported Damascus will finally publicize the result of its investigation into the supposed death of Hezbollah official Imad Mughniyeh Feb. 12 that was staged by Tehran but blamed on Israel to justify these latest war preparations. [JPOST]

Northern Command - "We are looking at this calm and quiet view but we know that underground there is a great deal of activity." That was the observant, alert quote of Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak as he toured the northern border with Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Harel and GOC Northern Command Major-General Gadi Eisenkut. "Hezbollah is growing more powerful but so are we and we are following developments. Meanwhile Hezbollah is deterred but we are on guard, there is daily activity of combat troops and we are learning the lessons of the last war. Israel is the strongest country in the region and I would not recommend that any one from the other side of the border test us." But according to Iran and the spirit-dictates of the Jihad they are obliged to do just that and enter martyrdom. Therefore I would not be surprised if Jerusalem decides to use its most successful military lesson, from June 1967, when realizing they were going to be attacked decided to strike first and won the war in six days. But there will be definitely no hesitancy in Israel's offensives on any of its borders, especially the northern border along Syria-Lebanon and I suspect Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah realize this which is why Syria has already taken up defensive positions. [HAARETZ]

Haaretz reports Israeli intelligence officials have outlined what they have told its Defense Ministry, "We clearly identify a great deal of activity among Hezbollah. It is growing stronger on all levels, improving its systems, its units and is receiving a great deal of weapons and missiles for medium and long distance (100-210 miles). Hezbollah is reading itself for an escalation that may break out in the North as a result of an operation against Israel. We are not discounting any possibility. There are assessments that they may carry out an operation through other organizations." That is quite true knowing how active Tehran has made al-Qaeda in the area. Hezbollah members are especially active south of the Litani river near Israel's border where Hezbollah has most of its underground bunkers and weapon storage facilities. They are operating in villages dressed in civilian clothes and seem to be prepared to fire a lot of their missiles from here. If any of them are biological or chemical then Israel would not hesitate to respond with its nuclear arsenal.

Damascus - In a last minute, desperate attempt to reduce Syria's vulnerability to Israel's offensive Tehran has been rushing advanced listening posts to Syria for the past few months in the hope this can improve Damascus' response. Haaretz quoted Israeli officials who refused so say how many stations have been set up but did say the stations are set for reception only, no transmission, therefore they cannot be intercepted. They are equipped with powerful antennas which can intercept communication from hundreds of miles. The distance for instance between Damascus/Jerusalem is only 135 miles (220 km). As a counter measure Israel defense officials have said its top brass will no longer be allowed to bring their mobile phones into rooms where classified information is being discussed. And generals will be assigned special areas on bases to conduct private conversations. Listening stations then will not be able to hear sensitive conversations that might be going on in the background while generals talk on their cellular phones. And several months ago all radio communication was ordered to be encrypted. [HAARETZ]

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