How Did Hillary Clinton Turn It Around?

By Mark Gersh, NCEC

Report from NCEC Washington Director Mark Gersh

In the week leading up to the New Hampshire primary, poll after poll had Barack Obama well ahead of eventual winner Hillary Clinton. Obviously the polls were wrong, but there were several other factors that led to Clinton's unexpected victory in New Hampshire, some of which carried over to Nevada. It remains to be seen what effect of any these results will have on the wider contest as Super Tuesday fast approaches.

Women propelled the comeback of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. As in Iowa, women comprised 57% of the electorate. However, Senator Clinton amassed a 12-point margin and generated a 17-point gender gap in New Hampshire, while she lost by five points to Senator Obama among women in Iowa amid a modest seven-point gender gap there. The positive trend continued for Clinton in the Nevada caucus, where women accounted for 59% of the electorate, and she outpaced Obama among women by an 11-point margin (51%-38%).

Several other, less conspicuous factors also played crucial roles in Hillary Clinton's comeback. Although Senator Obama garnered strong support from voters 18 to 29 years old, the share of the vote among this group declined from an estimated 22% in Iowa to 18% in New Hampshire. Nevertheless, it should be remembered that Obama was able to trigger far greater youth support in New Hampshire than any candidate managed to in the Democratic primary elections in 2000 or 2004. Obama carried the 18-to-29 voters by a 51% to 28% margin over Hillary Clinton, but he was decisively defeated among voters aged 45 and older, a group comprising 56% of the electorate. Clinton won a plurality among all voters over age 30 and tied Obama among voters 30 to 44 years old. In Nevada, Obama again outpaced Clinton for the youth vote, amassing more than 59%, but the age group accounted for just 13% of the total vote, showing that the power of the youth vote has declined in consecutive contests, a disturbing trend for the Obama campaign.

An abundance of scrutiny has been conferred on the gender and youth vote in New Hampshire. Here are a few other pertinent elements of the Clinton upset that have received less notoriety:

Late Deciders - A surprising 37% of the voters made their determination in the final three days, with more than one-third voting for Clinton. Apparently, the Obama campaign failed to receive the anticipated momentum boost from the Iowa campaign. Moreover, Senator Clinton won 40% of the vote among voters deciding on the final day of the New Hampshire campaign.

The Economy - Among the 31% of the electorate judging the economy as poor, Clinton amassed 44% as opposed to 31% for Obama.

Large Towns & Cities - Cities and towns casting 1,500 or more votes broke strongly for Clinton. Her 9,000 vote plurality in these places represented her entire victory margin. Conversely, Obama enjoyed a narrow lead in smaller New Hampshire towns, mostly in rural parts of the state.

A Repeat of Kerry/Dean - Howard Dean carried one county - Grafton - in his 2004 race against John Kerry. Obama also performed strongly in Grafton. Conversely, Kerry's strength in the two largest cities in the state - Manchester and Nashua - was replicated by Hillary Clinton. Clinton won Manchester by 15 points and Nashua by a 12-point margin. In the close 2008 contest, turnout was up 31.4% in areas won by Kerry and where Clinton tended to perform best, while it increased 27.5% in areas where Dean defeated Kerry and Obama ran strongly.

Turnout in Clinton Strongholds - Not only was Clinton the favorite of Manchester and Nashua voters, but prodigious turnout accentuated the Clinton margin in both places. Compared to 2004, turnout was up 27% in Manchester and 28% in Nashua. In other Clinton strongholds, the increase in turnout between 2004 and 2008 was remarkable: up 63% in Rochester and 40% in Somerville.

Independents - Although Barack Obama won Independents by 10 points, many Independents opted for the Republican primary battle between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Approximately 44% of the vote in the Democratic primary was cast by Independents, as opposed to 38% in the Republican contest. In Nevada, Obama once again carried the Independent vote, but Independents made up just 15% of the votes, which was not a large enough share for Obama to close the gap among registered Democrats.

In a race this close, any number of factors can spell the difference between victory and defeat. In New Hampshire it is clear that women carried the day for Clinton, along with the other factors that I have outlined in this memo, and many of these same factors led to Clinton 's victory in Nevada as well. On to the next state.

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NCEC is the National Committee for an Effective Congress, based in Washington DC, originally formed in 1948, after Eleanor Roosevelt and friends had an idea for an organization that would pool the resources of small contributors from across the country and spend those funds to help elect the most progressive candidates to the U.S. Senate and House.

judythpiazza@newsblaze.com

Copyright © 2008, NewsBlaze, Daily News

Tags: Politics, top news, Politics, Republicans and Democrats, Democrats, Women in the News, National, district of columbia, nevada, new hampshire

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