New Poll: Americans Don't Believe Iran Suspended Nuclear Program

A new bipartisan poll (Word Document) commissioned by The Israel Project (TIP) shows Americans do not believe the NIE and worry it will make the U.S. less safe. The survey shows that while 75 percent of likely voters had heard a "great deal" or "some" about the NIE report, only 27 percent believed its assessment that Iran's nuclear program ended in 2003. In contrast, 69 percent believe that the nuclear weapons program is still underway. Additionally, 64 percent fear America "will be less safe" based on this estimate "because it might lead to reduced pressure on Iran to stop its nuclear capacity for good." Only 27 percent thought "we are more safe" after the estimate "because it shows the threat from Iran is not as imminent as had been believed."

"The most surprising poll finding was pretty straightforward - voters simply don't believe the NIE finding regarding Iran's nuclear weapons program," said Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies. "Americans believe Iran's weapons program has not been shelved and many still consider the country to be an imminent threat to the U.S."

There is a clear sense that despite the NIE report, Americans remain very concerned about Iran and want to expand sanctions and other peaceful efforts to curtail the threat. Fully 85 percent of those polled consider Iran a serious threat, including 44 percent who consider it an immediate threat to the United States.

"The public views Iran as a threat and even after the NIE, they strongly support intensifying sanctions and diplomatic measures," said Jennifer Laszlo Mizrahi, founder and president of The Israel Project. "This is good news as there is still time to use the power of the purse for peace," said Mizrahi, whose organization has provided infomation on economic ways to help prevent war.

More than three fourths of likely voters approve of "expanded United Nations economic and diplomatic actions" to deal with Iran and 85 percent approve of "support of opposition groups in Iran that are working for democracy and human rights."

Americans are uncomfortable even with Iran's supposed civilian nuclear research program. When asked, "Do you think Iran should be allowed to continue its civilian nuclear research program or should the international community try to prevent Iran from further nuclear research," 69 percent agreed with the latter.

When asked to assume that the NIE was accurate and that Iran had ended its nuclear weapons program in 2003, Americans cite "international economic sanctions" (41 percent) and "international diplomatic pressure" (22 percent) as the principal factors in Iran ending its program. Only 5 percent said "Iran decided it no longer wanted or needed nuclear weapons."

Asked about the motivation of the earlier NIE reports that concluded that Iran was developing nuclear weapons, a majority (61 percent) believe those "were based on the intelligence agencies' best judgments at the time" while only 28 percent believed that the earlier NIE assessments were "deliberate misrepresentations of the available information." Still, they do not trust the current NIE, instead preferring to believe British intelligence findings (67 percent) that Iran's "nuclear weapons program continues."

Support for Israel in the conflict with the Palestinians remains extremely high with 62 percent of Americans considering themselves supporters of Israel and only 9 percent supporters of the Palestinians. Further, by a similar margin (61 to 10), Americans believe the U.S. should support Israel in the conflict with the Palestinians. This is in stark contrast to 2002, when fully 68 percent of Americans thought the U.S. should take neither side in the conflict.

"We see that Americans consistently support Israel because they understand that Israel, like America, is a modern democracy with freedom of religion, free speech and the right to vote for all citizens, Christians, Muslims and Jews," said Mizrahi.

Most Americans want a peaceful, two-state solution to the conflict. Although just 39 percent had heard a "great deal" or "some" about the Annapolis peace talks, a wide majority of 81 percent believe that "the goal of peace talks in the Middle East should be both a Palestinian state and peace and security in recognized borders for Israel and the Palestinians." This is in contrast to only 12 percent who believe "the goal of peace talks in the Middle East should solely be the creation of a Palestinian state."

A big obstacle, however, remains Palestinian terrorism. Fully 70 percent of respondents agree that "Palestinian acts of terrorism are unacceptable, no matter the conditions in which they live." Even though 60 percent were largely unaware of the "2,000 rockets that have been shot into Israel from Gaza, a Palestinian territory," 63 percent agree that "Israel's actions toward the Palestinians are understandable given the security threat they face," while only 29 percent believe them to be an overreaction.

"Can you imagine if everyday sitting in school, sitting in your living room, driving to the grocery store terrorists' rockets were targeting your neighborhood? The threat under which Israelis living near the border of Gaza face is unimaginable. It is encouraging to see that Americans understand that Israel must defend these innocent civilians. Sadly, however, most Americans are still unaware that more than 2000 rockets have hit Israel this year alone. This is especially troubling because these rockets are coming from a territory that Israel gave up two years ago in hopes of jumpstarting the road towards a two-state solution," added Mizrahi.

Nevertheless, most do not see a direct tie between the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and international terrorism. By a 55 to 43 margin, a majority of Americans believe "a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians would not have much of an impact on terrorism around the world."

The poll of 800 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted by telephone December 10-12, 2007 for The Israel Project by Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies and Stan Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percent.