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Presidential Campaigns Focus Efforts on Early Primary States

By Michelle Austein  

Local journalists closely analyzing four competitive January contests

With the first primaries and caucuses in the 2008 presidential race right around the corner, the candidates are focusing on states that hold the earliest contests.

This means the candidates are spending much of the remainder of 2007 in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina - all of which will hold their nominating contests in January.

Candidates hope that victories in these states will provide the momentum for victories in the primaries and caucuses that will follow in February and March.

Journalists from these four important states analyzed the races at a forum hosted by the Politico newspaper at George Washington University December 6 in Washington. With such close races, anything can happen, they agreed.

Another contest in January is not receiving much attention - a Democratic primary in Michigan on January 15. Democratic candidates have pledged not to campaign there because the state party changed the primary date in defiance of national party directive. This action robs the Michigan primary of any significance in the race for the Democratic nomination. (See related article.)

IOWA, JANUARY 3

Among Democrats, most polls suggest the race is a three-way tie among Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. However, according to David Yepsen, a political columnist for the Des Moines Register, 48 percent of Democrats say they still could change their mind.

"The Democrats are having a tough time deciding what they want to do here because they like all these candidates," Yepsen said.

Yepsen said caucus-goers traditionally are interested in electing an experienced leader, but recently Iowa voters have seemed eager for change, a shift that would help Obama, a first-term senator, get support.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee now leads most polls, although some polls report him in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney. About half the Republican caucus-goers say they could be persuaded to change their minds, Yepsen said. "The difference between Republicans and Democrats ... is Republicans aren't excited about any of their candidates."

As is the case in many U.S. political contests, turnout is expected to be a key factor, Yepsen said. He added that a lower turnout for the caucuses likely would benefit Huckabee, because his supporters seem very loyal and highly motivated.

Iowa voters "take their sweet time in deciding. ... [T]he game can break late as a result," Yepsen said. Yepsen said one of the most important influences will be "Christmas dinner and New Year's parties where families and friends get together to talk about what they're going to do at the caucus."

Having a caucus so soon after the holidays brings challenges for the candidates, who will have to shut down their campaigns on Christmas Day and limit their television attack ads so as not to appear too negative during the holiday season, Yepsen said.

NEW HAMPSHIRE, JANUARY 8

With New Hampshire holding its primary five days after the Iowa caucuses, there is less time than usual between what is seen as two of the most crucial nominating contests. "That is going to make the candidates' reactions to the Iowa results very important," said Andrew Cline, editorial page editor for the New Hampshire Union Leader. "They've got to respond quickly, and they've got to do a lot of one-on-one events in a short period of time."

These one-on-one events are key because many voters in this small state base their choices on their interactions with the candidates, Cline said. About half of New Hampshire voters will meet a candidate.

Democrat Clinton and Republican Romney long have been leading their parties' fields of candidates in this state. However, Clinton's lead over Obama has narrowed considerably in recent polls. Cline said that about two-thirds of voters in both parties say they are not committed firmly to a candidate.

If Clinton and Romney lose Iowa, Cline said, "they will have to come to New Hampshire and make the case for why they can win the nomination."

Clinton likely will face her biggest challenge from Obama. On the Republican side, John McCain's campaign in New Hampshire has been re-energized by an endorsement from the Union Leader.

NEVADA, JANUARY 19

The Nevada caucuses will be influenced by what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire, said J. Patrick Coolican, a politics reporter for the Las Vegas Sun.

Even though the Nevada caucuses have received little media attention thus far, Americans will be watching more closely if two different candidates win Iowa and New Hampshire in either party's races, Coolican said.

For the Democratic nomination, Clinton, having gained many endorsements, is leading most Nevada polls, but Obama also is running a successful campaign, Coolican said.

One important group that could influence the Nevada Democratic caucus is the Culinary Workers Union. The powerful 60,000-member union, which represents a large number of Las Vegas casino employees, has decided not to endorse a candidate until after the Iowa caucuses.

Polls show a mixed picture of the Republican race - some show Rudy Giuliani ahead, some show Romney leading and others report a statistical tie between the two.

SOUTH CAROLINA, JANUARY 19 and 26

The Republicans will hold their primary on January 19; the Democrats on January 26. It is the first state primary with a sizable African-American population - about half of Democratic voters will be black.

Although Clinton enjoys a slight lead in most polls, Obama has a slight edge in African-American support, said Lee Bandy, a political columnist for The State newspaper in Columbia, South Carolina.

With the Republicans, Huckabee has a slight lead in most polls, but faces close competition from several other candidates. About 40 percent of South Carolina voters are Evangelical Christians, making them an important group for Republicans to reach.

Since South Carolina began holding primaries in 1980, no Republican won the presidential nomination without first winning the South Carolina primary.

Citing these South Carolina polls, Bandy said that in his 40-year career in South Carolina, "I've never seen a presidential race that close."

Source: U.S. Department of State

judythpiazza@newsblaze.com