Oscar Predictions 2007

by Kam Williams

The Envelope Please: Who Will Win, Who Deserves to Win, Who Was Snubbed

Unless the Academy tosses a couple of curve balls, this ought to be the easiest year in memory to predict the outcome of The Oscars. Afterall, Dreamgirls not even landing nominations for Best Picture. Best Director or Best Script Adaptation has paved the way for perennial also-ran Martin Scorcese and The Departed as virtual shoo-ins in those three categories.

Similarly, Helen Mirren was lucky that Jennifer Hudson was nominated as a Supporting Actress, while Forest Whitaker was equally fortunate that Leonardo DiCaprio was nominated for Blood Diamond instead of The Departed. In fact, the only acting category up for grabs is the Best Supporting Actor, where early favorite Eddie Murphy's lead over Alan Arkin evaporated because the voting hadn't officially closed by the time that Norbit opened.

With so little mystery in store among the major awards, what little tension there is on Oscar night will revolve around the lesser categories and which film will take home the most gilded statuettes. Given the intense competition, none is likely to win more than The Departed, which will garner at least three, probably four, in this prognosticator's humble opinion. Regardless, here are not only my picks to win, but my designation of the most deserving nominees, and which pictures and performances were overlooked entirely by Oscar.

Best Picture

Will Win: The Departed - (review)
Deserves to Win: The Queen - (review)
Snubbed: Dreamgirls, Thank You for Smoking, The Good Shepherd

Best Director

Will Win: Martin Scorcese (The Departed) - (review)
Deserves to Win: Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Snubbed: Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)

Best Actor

Will Win: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
Deserves to Win: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
Snubbed: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed) - (review)

Best Actress

Will Win: Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Deserves to Win: Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Snubbed: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Deserves to Win: Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Snubbed: Michael Sheen (The Queen), Jack Nicholson (The Departed)

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Deserves to Win: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Snubbed: Diane Lane (Hollywoodland)

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine
Deserves to Win: The Queen
Snubbed: The Good Shepherd

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: The Departed - (review)
Deserves to Win: Notes on a Scandal
Snubbed: Dreamgirls

Best Foreign Film

Will Win: Pan's Labyrinth
Deserves to Win: Water
Snubbed: District B-13, Lower City, 13 (Tzameti)

Best Documentary

Will Win: An Inconvenient Truth
Deserves to Win: Iraq in Fragments
Snubbed: Our Daily Bread

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: Cars
Deserves to Win: Cars
Snubbed: None

See also, the reviews:
The Departed DVD Review
Queen Mirren of the Oscars
Dreamgirls` Lands a Trio of Golden Globes: Black Film Critics Vindicated
Dreamgirls Lands Most Nominations But Snubbed for Best Picture
Norbit (Film Review)
The 10 Best, No the 100 Best Films of 2006