Published: February 01, 2007
Global Credit Quality Improves Significantly in January
Current Credit Quality Improves to March-May 2006 Levels

Kamakura Corporation announced today that its
monthly global index of troubled companies improved significantly in
January to 6.1% of the global public company universe, down sharply from
7.3% of the universe in December. This decrease was the sharpest one month
drop in the index since December 2005. January global credit quality was
superior to 98% of the monthly periods since January 1990, up from an 86%
rank in December. The January troubled company index is at its lowest level
since the record heights in credit quality reached in the March-May 2006
period. The all time low in the troubled company index was the 5.4% level
reached during that period. Kamakura defines a troubled company as a
company whose default probability is in excess of 1%. The index covers more
than 17,000 public companies in 29 countries using the fourth generation
version of Kamakura's advanced credit models. The 16-year high in the index
was 28%, reached in September 2001, the worst part of the last recession.

"The credit quality improvement in January was quite strong in all
spectrums of credit risk," said Warren Sherman, Kamakura President and
Chief Operating Officer. "The number of companies with default
probabilities between 1% and 5% was 4.4% of the global public company
universe in January, down from 5.0% in December. Companies with default
probabilities between 5 and 10% were down 0.3% to 0.9% of the universe. The
percentage of companies with default probabilities between 10% and 20%
decreased in January by 0.2% to 0.5% of the universe. The number of global
companies with default probabilities over 20% also decreased 0.2% to 0.3%
of the universe at the end of January."
Beginning in January 2006, Kamakura has moved to a global index covering 29
countries using the annualized one month default probability produced by
the best performing credit model of the Kamakura Risk Information Services
default and correlation service. The model used is the fourth generation
Jarrow-Chava reduced form default probability, a formula that bases default
predictions on a sophisticated combination of financial ratios, stock price
history, and macro-economic factors. The countries currently covered by the
index include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan,
Luxemburg, Malaysia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, South
Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom,
and the United States.
Kamakura is offering free trials of its KRIS default probability and
default correlation service to qualified institutions. For more
information on Kamakura's free trial offer please contact Kamakura at
info@kamakuraco.com. More information can also be found on the Kamakura
Corporation web site www.kamakuraco.com and in a chapter from "The Basel
Handbook," second edition, (Michael Ong, Editor) by Kamakura's van
Deventer, Li Li, and Xiaoming Wang (available on www.amazon.com).
About Kamakura Corporation
Kamakura Corporation is a leading provider of risk management information,
processing and software. Kamakura has been a provider of daily default
probabilities and default correlations for listed companies since November
2002. Kamakura launched its business mortality model for unlisted companies
in January 2004. Kamakura is also the first company in the world to develop
and install a fully integrated enterprise risk management system that
analyzes credit risk, market risk, asset and liability management, and
transfer pricing software system. Kamakura has served more than 160
clients ranging in size from $3 billion in assets to $1.6 trillion in
assets. Kamakura's risk management products are currently used in 23
countries, including the United States, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands,
France, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, the Middle East,
Africa, Australia, Japan, China, Korea and many other countries in Asia.
Kamakura's research effort is led by Professor Robert Jarrow, who was named
Financial Engineer of the Year in 1997 by the International Association of
Financial Engineers. Professor Jarrow and Dr. van Deventer were both named
to the 50 member RISK Hall of Fame in December 2002. Kamakura management
has published more than 100 publications on credit risk, market risk, and
asset and liability management. Kamakura has worldwide distribution
alliances with IPS-Sendero (www.ips-sendero.com) and Unisys
(www.unisys.com), making Kamakura products available in almost every major
city around the globe.
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