Published: January 28, 2007
Op-Ed Contributor
Crossfire War - Last Minute Effort to Avoid Civil War in Lebanon
By Willard Payne
Crossfire War - TEHRAN - RIYADH WATCH - West Asia Theatre: Tehran - Beirut - Damascus - Riyadh/Paris - Washington - Rome; 58th Day - Saudi Arabia - Iran Working in Tandem to Promote Unity Dialogue in Last Minute Effort to Avoid Third Round of Violence - Civil War - Gunmen on Rooftops
Night Watch: BEIRUT - AFP is reporting desperate last minute efforts currently in progress to avoid another Lebanon civil war which, they know, will result from a third round of violence.
As gunmen are appearing on rooftops and masked men ask for identity papers at roadblocks, Saudi Ambassador Abdul Aziz Khoja met separately, on Saturday, with Sunni Prime Minister Fuad Siniora and the Shiite Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri. The two leaders have not met face-to-face since November.
A close adviser to Berri stated, "We're at a crossroads. If those in power continue to reject all solutions that would satisfy all sides, there will be a third round of violence, and then no one would be able to halt the slide to civil war."
His Excellency Khoja said, "It is time for the Lebanese to unite and save the country." http://www.asharqalawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=7811
The House of Saud is not frighten of Tehran as most analysts have led themselves helplessly to believe. Riyadh is actually working in tandem with Tehran to control the country away from Paris and the West.
Ankara would not mind, either, if the West were no longer an influential factor in the region. Moderates want the Jihad to be moderately successful; extremists want it to be extremely successful. I remember how a woman who was once married into the House of Saud described them as "the Taliban with money."
Wahabism, the foundation of Islamic ideology in the kingdom, is virulently anti-West. As Tehran, Riyadh agrees, the West should no longer have the influence it once had in the region. They are now attempting to convince Siniora to give the opposition a greater role in the government's decision making.
Saad Hariri, a Sunni Parliament majority speaker whose father was assassinated by Tehran in February 2005, has stated he is ready to meet Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. His father Rafik al-Hariri was killed because he had begun to work with Paris instead of with political forces more representative of Islamic people.
The reason Christian nationalists are working with Tehran is the same reason those who are secular but nationalistic are: the West is no longer seen as the progressive influence it once was. It is now viewed as a regressive-oppressive presence. Economic contacts are one thing but attempting to control the region politically is something quite different. This is 2007 not 1957.
There have now been telephone talks between Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Siniora and Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, a Siniora supporter.
Crossfirewar.com reported Jumblatt was warmly received by Tehran in April 2005 and warmly received by Iran's then President Mohammad Khatami. Their meeting gave the impression they agreed more than disagreed and that Jumblatt had no problems with Tehran's representative group, Hezbollah, becoming an increasingly influential political presence. But Jumblatt may not be ready for complete disengagement from Paris.
I suspect Tehran, who was never operating just with spirit, is in the process of convincing Jumblatt that he and the Druze will benefit economically from the new re-alignment - that they will not only benefit by investments from Tehran but also Riyadh and other Islamic governments and that the massive debt owed by Beirut to Paris will be reduced if not eliminated.
Jumblatt could even be told that in the next elections he would have an excellent chance of emerging as Prime Minister even if his party is not the lead vote getter.
Tehran-Hezbollah-Riyadh-Damascus are more concerned about Hezbollah and other Islamic military units being more successful in their war against Israel than they are interested in seeing Nasrallah as Prime Minister or President. But perhaps as Foreign Minister, Nasrallah would be in an official position to organize and receive military support from Islamic governments.
During the next round of regional fighting European units in UNIFIL will be more of a target than Israel. Last year Tehran had al-Qaeda declare UNIFIL an enemy of Islam. The Islamic Axis also has plans in motion to assist Egyptians political
forces who are no longer represented by President Hosni Mubarak, the main obstacle to Islamic Axis military unity.
The House of Saud no longer receives Mubarak in Riyadh but in the VIP lounge at Jeddah airport.
Today the Islamic Axis' objective is Beirut, the next one is Cairo as they keep the West busy in the Balkans and Russia in the Caucasus while the lost alliance of London-Washington makes their excuses in Baghdad.
Night Watch Information Service
http://www.crossfirewar.com
* The views of Opinion writers do not necessarily reflect the views of NewsBlaze
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