Published:
Global Credit Quality Slips in December to Lowest Point in 2006
Current Credit Quality Ranks Better Than 86% of Last 192 Months

Kamakura Corporation announced today that its
monthly global index of troubled companies rose in December to 7.3% of the
global public company universe, up from 7.0% of the universe in November.
December global credit quality was superior to 86% of the monthly periods
since January 1990, down from a 90% rank in November. The December troubled
company index is at its highest level since hitting 8.4% in November 2005.
Kamakura defines a troubled company as a company whose default probability
is in excess of 1%. The index covers more than 17,000 public companies in
29 countries using the fourth generation version of Kamakura's advanced
credit models. The Kamakura troubled company index reached its 16-year low
of 5.5% in April 2006. Its 16-year high of 28% was reached in September
2001, the worst part of the last recession.

"Credit quality continues to vary in a narrow range at levels that are very
good but not great," said Warren Sherman, Kamakura President and Chief
Operating Officer. "The number of companies with default probabilities
between 1% and 5% was 5.0% of the global public company universe in
December, unchanged from November. Companies with default probabilities
between 5% and 10% were up 0.2% to 1.2% of the universe. The percentage of
companies with default probabilities between 10% and 20% increased in
December by 0.1% to 0.7% of the universe. The number of global companies
with default probabilities over 20% also increased 0.1% to 0.5% of the
universe at the end of December."
Beginning in January 2006, Kamakura has moved to a global index covering 29
countries using the annualized one month default probability produced by
the best performing credit model of the Kamakura Risk Information Services
default and correlation service. The model used is the fourth generation
Jarrow-Chava reduced form default probability, a formula that bases default
predictions on a sophisticated combination of financial ratios, stock price
history, and macro-economic factors. The countries currently covered by the
index include Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark,
Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan,
Luxemburg, Malaysia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, South
Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom,
and the United States.
Kamakura is offering free trials of its KRIS default probability and
default correlation service to qualified institutions. For more
information on Kamakura's free trial offer please contact Kamakura at
info@kamakuraco.com. More information can also be found on the Kamakura
Corporation web site www.kamakuraco.com and in a chapter from "The Basel
Handbook," second edition (Michael Ong, Editor), by Kamakura's van
Deventer, Li Li, and Xiaoming Wang (available on www.amazon.com).
About Kamakura Corporation
Kamakura Corporation is a leading provider of risk management information,
processing and software. Kamakura has been a provider of daily default
probabilities and default correlations for listed companies since November
2002. Kamakura launched its business mortality model for unlisted companies
in January 2004. Kamakura is also the first company in the world to develop
and install a fully integrated enterprise risk management system that
analyzes credit risk, market risk, asset and liability management, and
transfer pricing software system. Kamakura has served more than 150
clients ranging in size from $3 billion in assets to $1.6 trillion in
assets. Kamakura's risk management products are currently used in 23
countries, including the United States, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands,
France, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, the Middle East,
Africa, Australia, Japan, China, Korea and many other countries in Asia.
Kamakura's research effort is led by Professor Robert Jarrow, who was named
Financial Engineer of the Year in 1997 by the International Association of
Financial Engineers. Professor Jarrow and Dr. van Deventer were both named
to the 50 member RISK Hall of Fame in December 2002. Kamakura management
has published more than 100 publications on credit risk, market risk, and
asset and liability management. Kamakura has world-wide distribution
alliances with IPS-Sendero (www.ips-sendero.com) and Unisys
(www.unisys.com), making Kamakura products available in almost every major
city around the globe.
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