Published: November 24, 2006
Op-Ed Contributor
Crossfire War - Tokyo Suspends 10 Billion Dollar Loan to Tehran
By Willard Payne
Crossfire War - Tokyo Watch - Eurasia Theatre: Tokyo/Tehran; Japan Suspends 10 Billion Dollar Loan to Iran in Concerns Over Nuclear Weapons Program - Negotiation Breakdown - Tokyo Disengages From Azagedan Oilfield Project in Persian Gulf
Night Watch: TOKYO - AKI reports that Japan has begun to disinvest in Iran due to no real progress in negotiations over Iran's nuclear weapons program. Obviously Japan's own intelligence services are aware of the true nature of the program, coupled with the offensive posture of Tehran's foreign policy, Tokyo therefore does not want its investments in Iran or in the Persian Gulf to be caught in the crossfire of World War III. I suspect Tokyo is also aware that the Allies have given up on a peaceful resolution. [
AKI]
Not only has Japan disengaged from the Azagedan oilfield project in the Persian Gulf but in addition has frozen a 10 billion dollar loan from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation. A bank director stated, "...only in the event that negotiations on Iran's nuclear program lead to an agreement that is acceptable to the international community can these 10 billion dollars be released." Money is a weapon and Tokyo realizes no such agreement is coming. Japan is now prepared to do without easy access to the Persian Gulf, one of their most important energy lifelines.
The lifeline will be restored when the war is over and an effective Allied response from the East will limit the conflict's duration by forcing Tehran to divide its military resources. Tokyo will be an important factor in the Allies regaining access to the Gulf. What will help the Allies to do so is a lot of the Gulf countries, though they will not mind any of Tehran's initial military successes against the West, since it will reduce the West's ability to control the region, Gulf States however do not wish to see a second Persian Empire. They all remember the first one. Persia does have a tendency to be very dictatorial and demanding economically.
Japan has had serious problems with Iran's foreign policy for the past two years when Tehran announced, late in 2004, that they preferred China to be the main importer of Iranian oil and gas instead of Japan. That decision was made because of Beijing's massive support for the Islamic world's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Beijing would by no means mind at all if Japan's economy suffered some economic shocks, along with the rest of the industrialized world, due to loss of easy access to energy resources in West Asia (Middle East). Almost the very next day, after Tehran's decision, Tokyo changed its military policy from defensive to offensive for the first time in 70 years. Since then Tokyo/Tehran have had very serious, constant diplomatic contact. In early 2005 Tehran's then Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi had to spend five days in Tokyo in an effort to clarify Tehran's decision. Hardly a day has gone by since then of news on almost daily discussions between Japan/ Iran regarding Tehran's nuclear enrichment, with Tokyo saying unequivocally they wanted a peaceful resolution, in other words a peaceful Iranian foreign policy. In light of current developments mentioned on crossfirewar.com that is not possible, especially when one takes into account Tehran's non-stop war-game maneuvers they have waged all year.
Kamal Kharrazi is now head of Tehran's Foreign Relations Strategic Council, a decision making body that reports directly to the Foreign Minister, the President and the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, advising and assessing the latest decisions from governments. This decision by Tokyo is easy to interpret. This is not news - reports Tehran wanted to hear but they have got to confront it militarily. Iran may have more enemies than they planned.
Night Watch Information Service
www.crossfirewar.com
* The views of Opinion writers do not necessarily reflect the views of NewsBlaze
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