Published: November 01, 2006
Op-Ed Contributor
Crossfire War - Tehran to Test Fire Ballistic Missiles - Wargames - Nov. 2-12
By Willard Payne
Crossfire War - TEHRAN WATCH - Persian Gulf Theatre: Tehran - Muscat/Washington - London - Paris - Rome - Canberra - Bahrain; Iran to Test Long - Range Ballistic Missiles Shahab - 2 Shahab - 3 During Wargames - Nov. 2-12
Night Watch: TEHRAN - RIA reports that the Commander of Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps, General Yahya Rahim-Safavi has announced Iran will be holding large scale maneuvers in Iran and the Persian Gulf from November 2 - 12. Not only will it involve ground forces, navy, air force units and reservists but it will also be used to test fire two of Iran's long range missiles the Shahab - 2 and 3. The Shahab - 2, which first arrived from North Korea as the extended range Scud - C, has a range of 430 miles (700km) and can carry a warhead that weighs 1,500 lbs (700 kilograms). The Shahab - 3 is Iran's version of the North Korean No-Dong ballistic missile and has a range of 950 miles (1,500 km) with a warhead of 2,200 lbs (1,000 kilograms). The Shahab-3 can also be fitted with a nuclear warhead but I don't know if that is also true of the Shahab-2. [
RIA]
Iran has one of the largest ballistic missile arsenals in the developing world and all of them are based on North Korean designs which were first exported to Iran during the Iran/Iraq war from 1980-88. Both governments received them and targeted each other's military headquarters knowing precisely the enemy headquarters location, but no missile ever came anywhere near the intended target, even though they didn't have to travel more than 200-300 miles. The Scuds were lucky to hit a Baghdad or Tehran suburb and sometimes the warheads were duds.
With the end of the Cold War in 1990 and Beijing taking over North Korea as Moscow withdrew its support, Beijing had Pyongyang continue its nuclear and ballistic exports to Iran since China knew if Tehran's foreign policy was militarily successful then some of Beijing's rivals would be weakened, the West-India-Russia.
Despite all the research and development of missiles of various types and ranges since the end of World War II by all the governments, scientists and technicians involved, none of them are an absolute certainty. They are the military's most elaborate weapons system and anything can go wrong. It is not much different from the little boy who said "I shot an arrow into the air it fell to earth I know not where." Nothing works as well as advertised. Even an ordinary bomb or shell can be a dud and they can also miss.
Whatever Tehran has in its stockpile the vast majority are not intended for Israel since there is no market for salt in the Dead Sea. The oil and gas in the Caspian-Black Sea region and the resources in northern India have much more economic potential. Iran wants the West to be less important in both of those regions' economic future.
Night Watch Information Service
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