Published: September 25, 2006
Iran Democracy Monitor No. 22, September 25, 2006
Editor: Ilan Berman
Iran's Carmakers Hunker Down
As the international crisis over Iran's nuclear ambitions continues to deepen, the country's automotive industry is preparing for operations during wartime.
"We now have three scenarios-green, yellow, and red," says Hadi Malekan, the business development manager of Saipa, one of Iran's leading carmakers. In the event of attack or invasion, a so-called "red" scenario, Malekan says, Saipa is likely to expand its production of military vehicles, while reducing some commercial lines "because of the lack of customers." Malekan's competitors have established similar contingency plans; Saipa's chief competitor, Iran Khodro, is also bracing for a change in business practices as a result of conflict.
A military attack, while a challenge in the short term, can in time be overcome by partnering with "European companies, even with Americans," says Alireza Mirzaei, Iran Khodro's vice-president. "Business is business, and they don't like to lose the benefit of the Iranian market, or the region. The past is past, and after five to six years, I believe we will be producing Chevrolets." (Fortune, September 12, 2006)
Taking Stock in Tehran
America's ongoing difficulties in the region have precluded the possibility of a U.S. military confrontation against Iran, a leading Iranian strategist has assessed. Former Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani, who now heads Tehran's Strategic Defense Studies Center, has told a leading Arab-language television station that, "since the U.S. has led a war in Iraq that has entailed a major catastrophe in the region," a military attack on his country is now "impossible." After all, according to Shamkhani, Iran's "situation is different than that of Iraq in terms of army and people." (alarabiya.net, September 18, 2006)
A Financial Tango Over Terrorism
Iran is moving to counteract U.S. efforts to curb its financing of international terrorism. In response to a recent decision by the U.S. Treasury Department to blacklist Iran's state-owned Bank Saderat, Iran's Central Bank has initiated steps designed to "confront the U.S. move." The Bank has "drafted necessary and emergency laws" to permit continuation of banking operations, and has relayed them to its various subsidiaries, according to an official statement.
On September 8th, the Treasury Department officially banned transactions with Bank Saderat, charging that it "facilitates Iran's transfer of hundreds of millions of dollars to Hizbullah and other terrorist organizations each year." (United Press International, September 12, 2006; Middle East Newsline, September 12, 2006)
Azeri Opposition Organizes...
Iran's ethnic Azeri population remains restive. In early September, in a sign of ongoing resistance to the Islamic Republic, an Iranian dissident group signed a cooperation agreement with one of Azerbaijan's political factions. The deal, struck between the Southern Azerbaijan Independence Party and the Azerbaijan Milli Istiqlal Party [AMIP], pledges "joint measures against the Iranian government's chauvinistic policy of national discrimination and assimilation against southern [Iranian] Azerbaijani Turks."
"The Southern Azerbaijan Independence Party does not believe that a democratic government will be established in Iran and the rights of Azerbaijani Turks living there will be protected," AMIP chairman Ayaz Rustamov explains. "We are fighting for the independence of southern Azerbaijan and for the establishment of a united Azerbaijan." (Baku Turan, September 16, 2006)
...As Tehran Bears Down
In response, Iran appears to be deepening its clampdown on ethnic Azeris in the country's north. Troops have reportedly been deployed in several northern towns in an effort to prevent mass rallies at the start of the new academic year, and sporadic arrests of nationalist activists are said to have taken place. (Moscow Regnum, September 24, 2006)
Copyright (c) 2006,
American Foreign Policy Council
alan@newsblaze.com
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