Crossfire War - Chatham House Think Tank Report on Iran's Influence - West Asia

By Willard Payne

8/23/2006

Crossfire War - TEHERAN WATCH - Eurasia Theatre: Teheran - Ankara - Qatar - Baghdad/London - Washington; British Think-Tank Chatham House Report "Iran, Its Neighbors and Regional Crises" - Concludes US - Coalition War on Terror has Strengthened Iran

Night Watch: LONDON - Established descison making circles, on both sides of the Atlantic, are being forced, finally, to confront some disturbing truths regarding the West's deteriorating position throughout West Asia and not just with ostracized "rogue states" like Iran-Syria. AFP reports that a highly regarded British think-tank, Chatham House, has just released a 50-page report titled, "Iran, Its Neighbors and Regional Crises" which outlines how the war on terror, conducted by Wasington-London and other available coalition partners has strengthened Iran's position throughout the entire region. [ASHARQALAWSAT]http://www.asharqalawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=6099

The U. S. led effort has removed two of Iran's enemies, the awkward, embarassing Taliban government in 2001 and Saddam Hussein in 2003. The reports states that the political structures Washington left behind in both countries are not stable which in turn has increased Teheran's presence in Afghanistan and Iraq. It actually states that in Iraq Teheran has superceded Washington as the main presence in the country. Concerning the aftermath of the first phase of the war in south Lebanon and its regional impact, the conflict there has increased instability and therefore Teheran's position due to its support for Hezbollah and Damascus.

In the reports Executive Summary it concludes that not only has Iran replaced the U. S. in Iraq but has, in the process, successfully cultivated closer ties to Turkey, Pakistan and Arab neighbors. "The U. S. driven agenda for confronting Iran is severly compromised by the confident ease with which Iran sits in its region." And that Iran's importance in the region "helps explain why Iran feels able to resist Western pressure. While the U. S. and Europeans slowly grind the nuclear issue through the mills of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations Security Council, Iran continues to prevaricate, feeling confident of victory as conditions turn ever more in its favour."

Regular readers of this site know that this is confirmation of what I have been saying since this site began in November 2004. What is especially ironic is that Chatham House is one of the 100 or more think-tanks I contacted that summer. I sent each one several of my worst-case scenario articles and one of them was titled, "The Persian Influence and Timetable." It stated, specifically, the real reason Saddam Hussein was not removed in 1991 and why the Gulf War was fought to begin with. The day after the Gulf War ended CNN showed the London branch office of engineering services headquarted in San Francisco invited to Iran via their London branch office. Teheran wanted damage done to Iraq's military first. When the engineering firm completed the network of military bases for Iran Saddam was then removed. Of course I got no response but you like to assume there may be one courageous exception but there wasn't. World War III was not on their covert agenda and corruption has been society's role model for quite sometime. I sent the articles as a way of attacking the established, entrenched, decision making level which I have long hated, which is what I use this site for. That is why one of this site's most consistent themes is that the corruption they are a part of is Teheran's greatest weapon.

The London based pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat reported an example today of Teheran's improved strategic relations with Arab governments with the visit to Beirut by Qatar Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani who stated proudly, "I am happy to meet with President Emile Lahoud today and especially at this time where the Lebanese people and its resistance have achieved the first Arab victory, which we have wanted for long years. I spoke with Presidents Emile Lahoud, Nabih Berri and Fouad Siniora about the common Arab future in this delicate period especially regarding the Security Council and how we present our cause and the implementation of international resolutions on the Palestinian issue and the Lebanese, as well as peace in the region, including Syria." [ASHARQALAWSAT]

Teheran could not have stated it any better. What is even more timely is that Qatar is currently a member of the Security Council and they are obviously not just representing themselves. This explodes the popular, established, decision making, analysis myth, that the Persian Gulf States are afraid of Teheran. As this site has stated constantly the only Islamic government not pleased with what they see as an Arab victory in south Lebanon is President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo who is definitely not reflecting the admiration most Egyptians have for the Lebanese resistance, seriously jeporadizing his own position.

The Emir then stated that Israel should be forced to lift its air and sea blockade of Lebanon. He also added that the war proved that Israel is no longer able to subjagate the Arabs by military force after what has happened in south Lebanon. At the press conference with President Lahoud the Emir responded to a question concerning the possibility that Arab governments may have used oil as a weapon, "If the oil weapon was used it would have served Lebanese interests, but unfortunately it was not used." The Emir is obviously stating that not only are more Islamic governments, whether they are Arab or not or Sunni - Shia are acting in concert with each other and with deliberate planning in advance. And they expect to emerge from these crises and wars more powerful internationally than they already are under a common-united Arab future in complete parternship with Iran and other non-Arab Islamic governments. I suspect the Emir has been informed that during the next round of fighting the oil weapon will indeed be used in support of not only Hezbollah but also Damascus-Teheran.

Chatham House is admitting one of the great foreign policy coups and fait accomplis of all time, that the US/UK war on terror has strengthened the center of terrorism, Iran. But the West does not seem to be ready to confront the basic truth that the only effective way to combat terrorism is to attack the center of it. Their failure to realize that or to hope somehow that can be avoided is obviously due to fear. Fear of something they released into the world in 1979, when they received someone named the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini into exile outside Paris in the fall of 1978, to prepare the way for him to replace the Shah of Iran, not realizing his influence would reach beyond Central Asia. They thought they could use him to cause disturbances only in Central Asia to provide Moscow with more reasons to invade south so they could control more of the region's raw materials, which would be mined and transported by inexpensive Communist labor to industries in the West.

They thought they could use Khomeini, instead they got World War III.

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