Published: August 19, 2006
Op-Ed Contributor
Crossfire War - Tehran Begins 5 Days of Ballistic Missile Tests on Saturday
By Willard Payne
Crossfire War - TEHRAN WATCH - Eurasia Theatre: Tehran/Delhi - Vienna - Moscow; Missile Launch Practice - Iran Revolutionary Guards to Test Launch Missiles from 5 Border Provinces - Maximizes Range - India - Europe - Russia
Night Watch: TEHRAN - AKI reports that Tehran is to begin, on Saturday, a series of missile launch tests that will last five days from five border provinces. Three were mentioned in the article: Kurdistan - Baluchistan - Khorasan. General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani of the Pasdaran Revolutionary Guards declared, "These maneuvers serve to re-elaborate the defence doctrine of our nation." I suspect he means a changed military doctrine from defensive to offensive. [
AKI]
Earlier this year Asharq Al-Awsat reported that Tehran had a Judgement Day strategy in case Iran were attacked first by either the U. S., Israel or both. Since that is obviously not going to happen Tehran has now changed its strategy to offense, in response to the ongoing disputes with certain Eurasian regions, Europe - Russia - India. Though Delhi, unwisely and chaotically, supports Tehran's nuclear program, Iran has security agreements with Pakistan that are a South Asian parallel to the ones they have with Syria and Serbia. The other two provinces were not named so I will guess Azerbaijan, bordering Turkey-Azerbaijan and Asterabad bordering Turkmenistan and its capital Ashkhabad.
This is an obvious, and very ominous show of strength that is meant to send a message to the UN Security Council and to anyone else either opposed to Iran or seen as an obstacle to the Islamic revival, which again is why I include India. The missiles being launched from border provinces is designed to maxmize the range. If they were launched from central Iran each missile would have to travel at least 500 miles before it left the country. Since there is no chance of any pre-emptive strike against Iran then by the time the intended targets realize what has happened it would have been to late. I don't believe Israel is any intended target because Tehran keeps implying Israel would only be targeted if Jerusalem struck first.
About the only factor in the Allies favor is that not all missiles are going to work. Nothing works as well as advertised as the recent tests in North Korea showed. Some will miss and some warheads will be duds. I suspect the longer the range the less its accuracy. Based on reported information over the years, mostly from Reuters, Iran seems to have two missiles ready, the Shahab - 3, 1,200 mile range and the Shahab-4 of approximately 2,000 miles, though I have no idea of how many of each. The Shahab - 4 could perhaps reach Berlin, the main financial and industrial supporter of Moscow's war effort and therefore the most important target in the West. Both missiles have been manufactured in Iran for at least two years and they can carry nuclear warheads especially with the technological assistance from Beijing that has enabled Tehran to miniaturize the warhead.
This is basically the completion of Tehran's 20 year old nuclear-ballistic missile program that has been very cosmopolitan in its development. It has employed Russian scientists that went south after the Cold War ended 15 years ago, only Berlin has any idea how many. Chinese technicians work there overseeing the imports Iran has received from North Korea for years and all of them are working in vast underground facilities constructed by the Anglo-American engineering consortium of corruption headquarted in San Francisco. CNN showed the firm's London branch office invited to Iran the day after the Gulf War ended in 1991, which is why the US/UK require Tehran's permission in order to attack Iran. The lost alliance has long had its ready excuse for having not done so already, they are too busy elsewhere, marching to Tehran's agenda, Iraq-Afghanistan. That is the option they chose 15 years ago. That is also how they have convinced themselves Bin Laden can arrange flight school training.
As crossfirewar.com has stated since its inception everyone knows the Jihad pays well. That corruption and servile sense of availability is Tehran's greatest weapon. Only Beijing has willingly contributed for purely strategic reasons. Pyongyang does so out of extreme economic desperation and they are controlled by Beijing, who wants to see a weaker West-Russia-India, three of China's main rivals. With that in mind it may be possible to guess from what provinces Tehran will use to launch missiles toward their specific Eurasian destination, targeting I suspect three principal sites. Government buildings, therefore the capitals, important military bases and their industrial counterparts, the centers of production for the Allies' war industry.
Since September marks the end of the Monsoon season in South Asia then it could mean Delhi-India could be the first target by missiles launched from Baluchistan, which borders Pakistan. Both the Shahab-3 and 4 could easily reach in support of Islamabad and Islamic groups in Kashmir. Missiles fired from Khorasan, in north central Iran and from Asterabad, bordering Turkmenistan, could be meant for Moscow-Russia. Moscow is just 1,500 miles northwest from Asterabad. From Azerbaijan province, bordering Turkey-Azerbaijan and from Kurdistan, which borders Iraq, but still in Iran's northeast, could be the missiles designated for Vienna-Berlin-Rome.
The reason for Rome being targeted could be to prevent it from being used as a strategic regouping center by the West. The Rome Conference on Lebanon was, in so many ways, an example of Rome's re-emergence on the world stage. Rome's position is this war will mirror London in World War II. Rome is nearly 2,000 miles west of Azerbaijan province. Vienna being designated for destruction is obvious since they are the base of the UN nuclear monitoring agency the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that has been conducting an unwelcome investigation into Iran's nulear program for three years.
Even if Iran had a missile that could reach NATO headquarters in Brussels it would not be launched since decisions there have long been helping Tehran, especially since Brussels decided to not only recognize the extraordinarily ridiculous decision that divided Yugoslavia, but also the stupidly imperial decision to commit units there putting NATO completely out of position. It started another front. In the meantime Brussels decided to make its power projection out of Europe into the narco-state of Afghanistan where Brussels is protecting the opium trade. Perhaps they have been injecting some in the course of their deliberations.
It is no coincidence these five days of tests are just before the UN Security Council deadline of August 31 when Tehran is supposed to end its uranium enrichment. The five days also coincide with Tehran's own timetable for its response, August 22. The implied threat from the Security Council is the imposition of economic sanctions on Iran. The missile tests are Tehran's implied response.
Night Watch Information Service
www.crossfirewar.com
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