Crossfire War - Mubarak - Controlled Panic Over "Gravity" of Situation in Region

By Willard Payne

Crossfire War - TEHRAN WATCH - West Asia Theatre: Tehran - Beirut - Damascus/Cairo - Jerusalem - Washington; Mubarak - Situation Desperate - State of Controlled Panic - Letter to Bush Expresses "Gravity" of the Situation in Region - Speaks of Future Consequences

Night Watch: CAIRO - The established Egyptian daily al-Ahram has reported Egypt President Hosni Mubarak has sent an urgent letter to U. S. President George W. Bush, which calls for Bush to acheive an "immediate and unconditional ceasefire". The letter stresses the "gravity" of the situation, not just in Lebanon, but in the region and with the very real chances of the war spreading to Syria, where "such a scenario would close off any prospect of re-establishing peace in the region." Mubarak even states his concerns for future consequences, implying a West Asia without a Mubarak ruling Egypt. [AKI]

al-Ahram seems to indicate Mubarak is pinning his last hopes on preserving security, his administration, by supporting Riyadh's call for a summit meeting in Beirut by the Arab League and stating their support for Lebanon. Reports are now saying the summit could take place in the middle of next week but no word on what kind of support they have in mind. Lebanon has already received praise from virtually every Islamic capital and massive financial assistance from the House of Saud. If the summit does take place Beirut may actually call for military assistance and not against Hezbollah but against Israel. Lebanon's Christian President Emile Lahoud has already said publicly if Israel invades Lebanon the Lebanese army units will fight alongside Hezbollah. As of this writing Israel has just begun airstrikes on the Christian areas of Beirut.

Therefore it is quite possible that before the summit takes place Lebanese units could be involved in the war and Syria could also have entered it, which would prepare the way for Iran since Damascus-Tehran have the same sense of commitment. A sense of commitment which is very much in opposition to Mubarak's sense of survival. He is the odd man out in the Islamic world, a role he began to assume when he became head of state after his predecessor Anwar Sadat was assassinated by Islamic radicals in 1981, inspired by the same spirit that motivated the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979, whose spritual descendents are ruling Tehran. But Mubarak, (in)securing his outside role, was 20 plus years of military maneuvers with the West. The impact of this war is already being felt more in Egypt and by Mubarak than on Israel.

Mubarak will not be in Egypt when the smoke clears. He may be able to follow the footsteps of another Egyptian ruler, King Farouk who was overthrown by Egyptian officers in July 1952 working with the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization very much in favor of the war against Israel and will not mind at all when that war expands against the West. All during this year they have exprienced such a revival of their popularity that voting in the recent elections were curtailed as the groundswell of oppostion to the corruption and oppression of Mubarak's administration increased. Farouk died in 1965, an exile in Rome.

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