Maoist Maneuver And The October Option

By Maila Baje

A day after his boys clobbered a few cops, Nepal Army chief Gen. Pyar Jung Thapa skipped a much-anticipated appearance before the commission investigating the erstwhile royal regime's suppression of the democracy movement.

The confluence of these two events, at a time when a top-level United Nations delegation is in the country on a fact-finding mission, casts a long shadow on the peace process. The delay in the second round of formal talks between Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala and Maoist chairman Prachanda, on the other hand, hasn't stopped the rebel chief from holding that other vital summit with Gen. Thapa.

News of the soldier-to-soldier confab came from Prachanda himself. At a public program in the capital, the Maoist supremo said he had met the NA chief for consultations on managing weapons. Gen. Thapa, according to Prachanda, said he would follow any modalities laid down by Prime Minister Koirala.

This evidently prompted Prachanda to thank Gen. Thapa for his abiding faith in the prime minister. Almost two years after he raised the question, the comrade in chief finally seems to be on the track to discovering who holds the actual reins of power.

Prime Minister Koirala's own telephone conversation with Prachanda around this time was no less revealing. Koirala, we understand, told Prachanda that he should seize the opportunity for peace while he (Koirala, that is) is still alive. With no presumed successor to the ailing Koirala in sight within his Nepali Congress, the situation is bad enough. We don't know whether the Nepali Congress would even get the premiership should Koirala, God forbid, depart.

Prachanda, for his part, is taking his own time. Having emerged from decades in the shadows, he deserves all the sunshine he can bask in - and on all sides. Days after rejecting the government's letter to the United Nations with own missive to Kofi Annan, Prachanda still professes good faith. Whether his consultations with the UN team succeeds in "forging a common understanding" is a different matter.

To bolster his peace credentials, Prachanda has extended the ceasefire for three months. But not without a stern warning. "We want to follow the pact we signed with the seven-party ruling alliance and take peace talks forward," he said in a statement. "But if that fails, we would be compelled to begin another intense though peaceful people's movement."

Let's not go into whether such a statement came from a position of strength or of weakness. Consider the Maoists' plight: Everyone barring the Chinese has explicitly called for the rebels' disarmament before their inclusion in an interim government. Even the Indians who "forged" the SPA-Maoist alliance don't want to see armed Maoists in power.

Surely, Ganapathy and his brigades of Naxalites across the southern border must be seething at this betrayal of the South Asian revolution. The Communist Party of India (Marxist), whose leader Sita Ram Yechury is credited with almost single-handedly amalgamating the mainstream parties and the Maoists against the monarchy, now wants the Naxals to emulate their Nepalese cousins' maturity.

Let's play the devil's advocate a little deeper. The Maoists aren't talking about eternally remaining an armed political party like Hezbollah. They are talking about a well-regulated people's militia, something along the lines of what the Second Amendment to the US Constitution envisages. (Maybe Prachanda should reach out to the National Rifle Association for some PR help.)

Every profession of good faith has its downside. Linger a little longer cultivating the Chaudharis, Khetans and other captains of industry and commerce, and it might be too late for Prachanda to lead his lads and lasses back to the jungles.

But maybe Prachanda is really using peace as an instrument of war. Without Koirala, wouldn't the SPA just implode? The Maoist truce is set to expire in the last week of October, right? So Prachanda can still make good on his threat to launch his much-vaunted revolution.

Maila Baje writes about Nepal at http://nepalinetbook.blogspot.com

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