Published: July 28, 2006
Op-Ed Contributor
Crossfire War - Balkans - Kosovo - Countdown to Resumption of War
By Willard Payne
Crossfire War - TEHRAN WATCH - Southeast Europe Theatre - Kosovo: Tehran - Belgrade/Brussels - Vienna; "Serbia Will Fight for Kosovo" - Tomislav Nikolic - Serbian Radical Party - Countdown to Resumption of War
Night Watch: BELGRADE - Tomislav Nikolic is the leader of the increasingly popular Serbian Radical Party and chances are he is expressing what most Serbs, including Serbian leaders, are saying privately, despite their official posturing during the current series of Vienna negotiations. Nikolic represents a wave of ultra-nationalism that has been sweeping Serbia since NATO took control over the province in 1999 after a 78 - day bombing campaign, that coined the phrase "collateral damage" as a way of writing off civilian deaths. [
SERBIANNA]
Most Albanians are also aware that if the UN sponsored talks result in an international declaration of Kosovo independence, war will break out in the Balkans again. Nikolic stated, "The whole world must know that. Serbia will fight for Kosovo." And that no Serbian leader will accept Kosovo independence. Albanians seem to be provoking a renewed conflict by conducting attacks against Serbian communities in Kosovo.
Nikolic continued by admitting that "if they want to take Kosovo away from us Belgrade cannot prevent that. Serbia will be peaceful as long as talks are going on but could explode in unrest in case of Kosovo independence." The only question is who will the Serbs attack first, Albanians or UN/NATO forces in the area supporting Kosovo.
Tehran does not care just as long as fighting resumes which will direct Vienna's and Brussels' attention away from Tehran and toward the war right on Europe's doorstep. In preparation for Iran's direct intervention Tehran signed, in January, a security agreement with Belgrade similar to the military-security agreements Tehran has with Damascus and Islamabad. It was a follow up to Tehran establishing relations with every capital in the divided Yugoslavia in 1992 and announcing this was their "entry into Central Europe", Iran's avenue of invasion.
I don't know what the schedule for the UN talks are but war begins again in the Balkans with the recognition of Kosovo independence unless Serbs decide to respond militarily to attacks against them that have been going on for at least a year by Albanian groups. Serbian and ethnic Albanian officials were not available for comment when asked to respond to statements from the Serbian Radical Party leader.
Regular readers of crossfirewar.com know I have long stated the conflicts here are the result of the most regressive decsion Europe ever made in its modern history when it agreed to the division of Yugoslavia in the name of the "New World Order" that was declared right after the end of the Cold War in 1990. It was supposed to be a staged crisis, orchestrated by Vienna, showing the world the new cooperation between Eastern-Western Europe. Vienna and all the 55 governments in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) assumed the crisis could be solved with a series of high profile, highly publicized diplomatic agreements and conferences, the same way they arranged crises throughout the Cold War. But this time Vienna-Brussels underestimated the impact of weapon dealers.
The division unleashed the dark forces of pagan ethnic nationalism and religious hatred, Europe's most primitive and proud mentality. It is impossible to have a more divisive influence. I had convinced myself Europe was through with map-making, but societies retain their character. Neither did Europe know Tehran would realize this is a front they can use.
Enter Persia, intelligent ancient evil, experts at using availability. The West has not confronted an enemy like Iran for quite some time, not since the Ottomans. The West will regroup around Rome. NATO will not survive. Brussels put itself completely out of position when it recognized the divided Yugoslavia. NATO will never be any threat to Iran. Rome will replace Brussels as the most important adminstration center in Western Europe. The West's new military alliance will be headquarted there. Berlin and Eastern Europe will remain in close cooperation with Moscow.
Night Watch Information Service
www.crossfirewar.com
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