Published: February 17, 2006
Op-Ed Contributor
Crossfire War: Russia Reinforces Airbase in Kyrgyzstan
By Willard Payne
Crossfire War - TEHRAN WATCH - Central Asia Theatre: Moscow/Bishkek - Tehran; Russia Reinforces Airbase in Kyrgyzstan
Night Watch: KANT - "The base will be doubled in terms of personnel and aircraft within a year." That is the quote from Russian Air Force Commander General Vladimir Mikhailov. The airbase at Kant is just 20 miles west of the Kyrgyzstan capital Bishkek. The government in Bishkek has just demanded an enormous increase, of about 100 times, in the cost to Washington of the base the U.S. uses there. [
RIA Novosti]
With Moscow improving the capability and performance of its armed forces within a year matches the timetable I projected for the war's course and outcome. I never tried to envision more than two years of all out fighting, this year and the next. In June 2004 the New York Times mentioned that not one Russian air unit was fully operational, that has obviously changed. When Tehran realizes they cannot defeat Moscow they will begin negotiations to end the war. Hopefully those negotiations will begin before next year is over.
As I have mentioned repeatedly Tehran is not going to wait for the world to be more prepared to confront them. In order for them to maintain their control over the event dialogue they will have to attack first as they have been indicating. That is why their foreign policy revolves around deception and crises creation.
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