Published: August 29, 2005
Op-Ed Contributor
Crossfire War: Eurasia; Berlin-Moscow Concern - Iran’s Nuclear Program
By Willard Payne
Night Watch: BERLIN - In what has been described as a "Blitz Visit", Russian President Vladimir Putin will discuss Iran’s nuclear program with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder during their Berlin summit on September 8.
The only serious military threat to Iran will come through Berlin-Moscow as they guarantee access to Central Asian raw materials. An official was quoted, "Both leaders will hold talks on current international political issues which also includes Iran’s nuclear program."
Both capitals probably are aware that Iran’s 20 year old nuclear program has long had nuclear weapons but was simply completing work on their delivery systems. Berlin-Moscow may even know the exact number of Russian scientists that went south when the Soviet Union broke up 15 years ago. What they have developed, along with Chinese technicians, working in nuclear bomb proof underground facilities, constructed by Bechtel Group, will have to be confronted militarily.
The initiative is with Tehran completely and they are not going to allow the West-Russia to strike first. I assume Germany has arranged industrial support to improve the readiness of Moscow to meet Iran in Central Asia and to increase Russia’s responsiveness to crisis in the Caucasus, most immediately in Dagestan, the oil rich province that borders the Caspian.
Also of interest to both capitals is the recent decision of President Saparmurad Niyazov, of Turkmenistan, to withdraw from the Commonwealth of Independent States, the union that was comprised of former Soviet Central Asian provinces that became independent when Moscow withdrew from the region to let the whole area go up in smoke. Moscow had retained a major presence in their decision making and in their economies but recently virtually every capital in the region has been making massive economic agreements with Tehran that also benefit Beijing.
The ensuing conflicts and instablility, caused by Khomeini’s influence, an influence the West-Russia did not believe would reach beyond Central Asia, would provide Moscow, and those who finance Moscow, principally Berlin, its excuse to re-enter militarily and in the name of security. But Berlin-Moscow underestimated Tehran’s Persian ability to scheme back and its expert use of availablility.
President Niyazov’s decision will definitely find favor in Tehran so do not be surprised that while Putin is in Berlin Niyazov could be in Tehran or receiving in Ashgabat a high level Iranian delegation signing new economic Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) directing more of Turkmenistan’s raw materials in Tehran-Beijing’s direction away from Berlin-Moscow where currently most of Turkmenistan’s resources have been destined.
The economic lifelines of the entire industrialized world are at stake. Improving Russia’s military effectiveness should be given top priority.
Night Watch Information Service
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