Published: February 03, 2005
Kamakura Reports Corporate Credit Quality Remains Strong in January
Tower Automotive Default Probabilities Reach 61% Prior to Bankruptcy

Kamakura Corporation reported today that its
monthly index of troubled companies in the United States remained strong in
January, rising slightly to 12.9% of the public company universe. The
Kamakura troubled company index was at its second lowest level since last
July, up from 12.0% of the public company universe in December. Kamakura
classifies any company with a default probability of more than one percent
as troubled. Kamakura also reported that its Jarrow-Chava default
probabilities for Tower Automotive Inc., which filed for bankruptcy on
February 2, were at 61% on February 1.
"The Kamakura troubled company index remains at levels consistent with the
best part of the credit cycle," commented Dr. Donald R. van Deventer,
Kamakura Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "Even with the slight rise
this month, the troubled company index remains near its cyclical lows. The
number of companies with default probabilities between 1% and 5% was 7.9%
of the public company universe, up from 7.0% in December. Companies with
default probabilities between 5 and 10% were 1.9% of the universe compared
to 1.6% in December. Companies with default probabilities between 10% and
20% were essentially unchanged at 1.3% of the universe. The riskiest firms
in the universe, those with default probabilities over 20%, decreased to
1.8% from 2.3% of the universe in December. Tower's bankruptcy filing on
February 2 shows that current credit quality problems are concentrated in a
small number of companies while the corporate world in general enjoys the
benefits of the economic recovery."

Kamakura is offering free trials of its KRIS default probability service to
qualified institutions. For more information on Kamakura's free trial
offer please contact Kamakura at info@kamakuraco.com. More information can
also be found on the Kamakura Corporation web site www.kamakuraco.com and
in "Advanced Financial Risk Management" (John Wiley & Sons, 2004) by
Kamakura's van Deventer, Kenji Imai, and Mark Mesler www.amazon.com)">. "Advanced Financial Risk Management" was recently named
"best finance book of 2004" on www.riskbook.com.
About Kamakura Corporation
Kamakura Corporation is a leading provider of risk management information,
processing and software. Kamakura has been a provider of daily default
probabilities for listed companies since November, 2002. Kamakura launched
its private firm modeling product in January 2004. Kamakura is also the
first company in the world to develop and install a fully integrated credit
risk, market risk, asset and liability management, and transfer pricing
system. Kamakura has clients ranging in size from $3 billion in assets to
$1 trillion in assets. Kamakura's risk management software is currently
used in the United States, Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia,
Israel, Japan, China, Korea and many other countries in Asia.
Kamakura's research effort is led by Professor Robert Jarrow, who was named
Financial Engineer of the Year in 1997 by the International Association of
Financial Engineers. Professor Jarrow and Dr. van Deventer were both named
to the 50-member RISK Hall of Fame in December 2002. Kamakura management
has published twenty-one books and more than 100 publications on credit
risk, market risk, and asset and liability management. Kamakura has
world-wide distribution alliances with IPS-Sendero www.ips-sendero.com)">
and Unisys www.unisys.com)">, making Kamakura products available in almost
every major city around the globe.
For more information contact:
Kamakura Corporation
2800 Woodlawn Drive, Suite 138, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822
Telephone: 1-808-539-3830
Facsimile: 1-808-539-3748
Information: info@kamakuraco.com
Web site: www.kamakuraco.com
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